Trade: Monaco Grand Prix: Head-to-Head
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: Head-to-head markets for the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $10
- Total Volume
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- 24h Volume
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- Open Interest
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Market outcomes
| Norris vs Russell | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Verstappen vs Hadjar | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Lindblad vs Lawson | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Leclerc vs Norris | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Leclerc vs Verstappen | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Leclerc vs Piastri | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Leclerc vs Russell | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Norris vs Verstappen | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Market context
The 2026 Formula 1 Monaco Grand Prix will take place on 31 May 2026 at the Circuit de Monaco in Monte Carlo. This head-to-head market settles based on the outcome of that race, with settlement occurring by 14 June 2026. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 50% implied probability, indicating substantial uncertainty between the two competitors in question. This even split suggests traders are pricing in comparable chances for each driver or team pairing, with no clear consensus emerging from recent order flow.
Monaco's historical significance as a street circuit with limited overtaking opportunities makes qualifying performance and car reliability disproportionately important. Past editions have shown that pole position converts to victory roughly 40–50% of the time, depending on safety car interventions and mechanical attrition. The 2025 season will provide crucial data on relative competitiveness between the paired competitors, particularly their performance on low-downforce, precision-demanding circuits where Monaco's characteristics are most closely mirrored.
Key catalysts for traders include the 2026 technical regulations finalisation, mid-season 2025 performance trends, and any driver or team changes announced before the race. Driver market movements—particularly transfers between top teams—could shift the probability substantially if one competitor gains a clear advantage in machinery or team resources. Weather forecasts closer to race day and pre-race practice sessions will also inform late-market adjustments, as Monaco's narrow margins mean setup and tyre strategy become decisive factors in the final hours before settlement.
Wikipedia Context
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Monaco Grand PrixThe Monaco Grand Prix is a Formula One motor racing event held annually on the Circuit de Monaco, in late May or early June. Run since 1929, it is widely considered to be one of the most important and prestigious automobile races in the world, and is one of the races—along with the Indianapolis 500 and the 24 Hours of Le Mans—that form the Triple Crown of Mo
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Monaco Grand Prix support races
The Formula One Monaco Grand Prix has had a support race in many of its editions, the longest running of which was the Monaco Grand Prix Formula Three, held each year from 1964 to 1997, and again in 2005. It replaced the Monaco Grand Prix Formula Junior. The Formula Three race was replaced by Formula 3000 for 1998, which would then become the GP2 Series and
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Monaco Grand Prix: Racing Simulation 2Monaco Grand Prix: Racing Simulation 2, also known simply as Monaco Grand Prix or Racing Simulation: Monaco Grand Prix, is a Formula One racing game developed and published by Ubisoft for Windows, Nintendo 64, PlayStation, and Dreamcast. It was released between 1998 and 1999. A sequel, Racing Simulation 3, was released in 2002.
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2015 Monaco Grand Prix
The 2015 Monaco Grand Prix, formally known as the Formula 1 Grand Prix de Monaco 2015, was a Formula One motor race that was held on 24 May 2015 at the Circuit de Monaco, a street circuit that runs through the principality of Monaco. It was the sixty-second running of the race as a World Championship event, and seventy-third running overall.
Resolution source
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.formula1.com/en/results/2026/races. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Monaco Grand Prix: Head-to-Head" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$0 in lifetime turnover and $10 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for formula1 contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.formula1.com/en/results/2026/races. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 14 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Monaco Grand Prix: Head-to-Head"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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