Trade: NE-02 Democratic Primary Winner
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NE-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on May 12, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $55K
- Total Volume
- $30K
- 24h Volume
- $3K
- Open Interest
- $10K
Market outcomes
| John Cavanaugh | 63% YES | 37% NO |
| Mark Johnston | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| Candidate A | — | |
| Candidate C | — | |
| Candidate E | — | |
| Candidate G | — | |
| Candidate I | — | |
| Candidate K | — | |
Market context
Nebraska's 2nd congressional district will hold a Democratic primary on 12 May 2026 to select the party's nominee for the U.S. House seat. The district, which encompasses Omaha and surrounding areas, has been competitive in recent cycles, making the Democratic nomination meaningful for the general election outcome. The current order book on Polymarket implies a 63% probability that a Democratic nominee will be formally announced by the 3 November 2026 deadline, reflecting confidence that the primary process will conclude with a clear winner rather than collapsing into uncertainty or remaining unresolved.
Historical precedent suggests Democratic primaries in competitive districts typically produce nominees without significant disruption. NE-02 has seen active Democratic recruitment in recent cycles given its lean-Republican but winnable profile. The implied probability of 63% for a nominee being announced reflects standard primary completion rates, though the relatively modest level indicates traders are pricing in material uncertainty around candidate recruitment, consolidation, or unforeseen circumstances that could delay or prevent a formal nomination.
Traders should monitor candidate announcements and filing deadlines in the coming months, as early declarations typically signal whether the field will be contested or consolidated. Nebraska's primary filing period and any major candidate withdrawals or endorsements will shape expectations around a clear nominee emerging. The settlement window extends well past the primary itself, providing time for official Democratic sources to confirm the nominee, though the November deadline creates a hard stop for resolution.
Wikipedia Context
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New Democratic Party
The New Democratic Party is a federal political party in Canada. Widely described as social democratic and democratic socialist, the party sits at the centre-left to left-wing of the Canadian political spectrum, to the left of the Liberal Party. The party was founded in 1961 by the Co-operative Commonwealth Federation and the Canadian Labour Congress. As of
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New Democratic Party candidates in the 2008 Canadian federal election
This is a list of nominated candidates for the New Democratic Party in the 40th Canadian federal election, which resulted in a Conservative minority government.
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New Democratic Party candidates in the 2006 Canadian federal election
The New Democratic Party fielded a full slate of 308 candidates in the 2006 Canadian federal election. It won 29 seats in the election to remain the fourth-largest party in the House of Commons. Many of the New Democratic Party's candidates have their own biography pages; information about others may be found here.
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New Democrat CoalitionThe New Democrat Coalition is a caucus in the House of Representatives of the United States Congress made up of Democrats, primarily liberals and centrists, who take a pro-business stance and a liberal-to-moderate approach to fiscal matters. Most members hold socially liberal views.
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "NE-02 Democratic Primary Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$30K in lifetime turnover and $55K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for elections contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $3K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for 6 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 12 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "NE-02 Democratic Primary Winner"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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