Elections

Trade: Arizona Governor Election Winner

Name: Arizona Governor Election Winner — Prediction Market
Brand: PolyGram
Availability: InStock

Opened 13 October 2025 · Settles 3 November 2026

Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Arizona gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate.

PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.

Liquidity: $26K
Total Volume: $42K
24h Volume: $11
Open Interest: $14K

Trade this market on PolyGram →

Market outcomes

Democrat	77% YES	23% NO
Option A	—
Option C	—
Option E	—
Option G	—
Option I	—
Other	—
Republican	24% YES	77% NO

Market context

Arizona will hold its gubernatorial election in November 2026, with the winner taking office in January 2027. The current order book on Polymarket implies a 77% probability for the YES option, reflecting market expectations around the Republican nominee's prospects. This probability reflects the state's recent electoral trajectory: Arizona has voted Republican in the last two gubernatorial races (2014 and 2018), though the 2022 election saw Democrat Katie Hobbs defeat Republican Kari Lake by roughly 2.5 percentage points. The state's political composition remains competitive, with shifting demographics and suburban voter patterns creating genuine uncertainty in statewide races.

Key catalysts for traders include the formal announcement of major party nominees, typically occurring at state party conventions in spring 2026. The Republican primary field and Democratic primary dynamics will shape candidate viability significantly. Economic conditions heading into 2026—particularly inflation, employment rates, and border-related policy debates—will influence voter sentiment. Additionally, any developments in ongoing Arizona political controversies, including election integrity disputes and legislative actions, may affect candidate positioning and voter enthusiasm. National political momentum and fundraising totals will provide real-time signals about candidate strength as the election approaches.

Wikipedia Context

List of governors of Arizona
The governor of Arizona is the head of government of the U.S. state of Arizona. As the top elected official, the governor is the head of the executive branch of the Arizona state government and is charged with faithfully executing state laws. The governor has the power to either approve or veto bills passed by the Arizona State Legislature; to convene the le
George W. P. Hunt
George Wylie Paul Hunt was an American politician and businessman. He was the first governor of Arizona, serving a total of seven terms, along with President of the convention that wrote Arizona's constitution. In addition, Hunt served in both houses of the Arizona Territorial Legislature and was posted as U.S. Minister to Siam by Woodrow Wilson.
Ariana Governorate
Ariana Governorate is one of the 24 governorates of Tunisia. Located in northern Tunisia, it has an approximately triangular shape, with one side bordering the Gulf of Tunis. It covers an area of 482 km2 (186 sq mi) and has a population of 668,552. Its capital is Ariana.

How this market resolves

Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.

How to trade this market step by step

The mechanics for trading "Arizona Governor Election Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.

Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.

How active is this market?

$42K in lifetime turnover and $26K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for elections contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.

Last 24 hours alone saw $11 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.

The market has been open for 7 months — long enough that the order book is mature and price is well-anchored to fundamentals.

Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.

Key terms

YES / NO share: A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
CLOB: Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
Liquidity: USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
UMA optimistic oracle: The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
Slippage: The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
Conditional token: ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.

See the full prediction-market glossary →

Frequently asked questions

How does this market resolve?

Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.

When does this market close?

This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 November 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.

How can I trade on "Arizona Governor Election Winner"?

To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.

What happens when the market resolves?

When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.

Risk and regulatory note

Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.

Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.

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