Trade: Will Tim Walz resign by...?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tim Walz announces he has resigned or will resign as Governor of Minnesota by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If it becomes impossible for Tim Walz to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Tim Walz announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $66K
- Total Volume
- $2.5M
- 24h Volume
- $1K
- Open Interest
- $75K
Market outcomes
| January 31 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| June 30 | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| Before 2027 | 11% YES | 90% NO |
Market context
Tim Walz, Minnesota's governor since 2019, would need to publicly announce his resignation or intention to resign before 30 June 2026 for this market to resolve affirmatively. The market currently reflects zero probability of such an announcement, suggesting traders assess resignation as an extremely unlikely event within the specified timeframe.
Gubernatorial resignations remain rare in American politics. Since 2000, only a handful of sitting governors have resigned mid-term, typically following criminal indictment, scandal, or health crises. Walz faces no current criminal charges, and his approval ratings have remained relatively stable despite controversies surrounding his pandemic response and public safety record. Historical precedent suggests resignation typically requires extraordinary circumstances rather than ordinary political pressure. The zero probability reflects this baseline expectation that governors generally serve out their terms absent severe personal or legal jeopardy.
Traders monitoring this market should track several potential catalysts: federal or state-level criminal investigations affecting Walz directly, major health developments, or significant shifts in Minnesota's political landscape that might make continuation untenable. His 2024 vice-presidential campaign with Kamala Harris concluded without elevation to higher office, removing one potential exit route. Any substantial scandal or legal exposure would likely surface through Minnesota media outlets and national political coverage before materialising as resignation. The settlement window extends through mid-2026, capturing the latter half of Walz's current gubernatorial term, though the current order book pricing suggests market participants assign negligible probability to resignation announcements during this period.
Wikipedia Context
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Tim WalzTimothy James Walz is an American politician, former educator, and Army National Guard veteran serving since 2019 as the 41st governor of Minnesota. He previously served as a member of the U.S. House of Representatives from 2007 to 2019, representing Minnesota's 1st congressional district. He is a member of the Minnesota Democratic–Farmer–Labor Party (DFL),
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Tim WakefieldTimothy Stephen Wakefield was an American professional baseball knuckleball pitcher. Wakefield began his Major League Baseball (MLB) career with the Pittsburgh Pirates, but is most remembered for his 17-year tenure with the Boston Red Sox, where he was a part of two World Series championships in 2004 and 2007. When he retired at age 45 after 19 seasons in ML
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Tim WalbergTimothy Lee Walberg is an American politician serving as a U.S. representative from Michigan since 2011, representing the state's 5th congressional district since 2023. A member of the Republican Party, he previously represented the 7th district from 2007 to 2009 and from 2011 to 2023 as the longest tenured member from Michigan.
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Tim Wilson (Australian politician)Timothy Robert Wilson is an Australian politician who has been the member of Parliament (MP) for the Victorian division of Goldstein since 2025 and from 2016 to 2022.
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Will Tim Walz resign by...?" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$2.5M in lifetime turnover and $66K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $1K in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 4 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Will Tim Walz resign by...?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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