Trade: How many Republican Governors after the 2026 midterm elections?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the party distribution of governors as a result of the 2026 midterm elections. This market will resolve based on the results of all gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $72K
- Total Volume
- $667K
- 24h Volume
- $175
- Open Interest
- $11K
Market outcomes
| 22–23 | 35% YES | 66% NO |
| 30–31 | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| 24–25 | 36% YES | 65% NO |
| <22 | 14% YES | 86% NO |
| 28–29 | 5% YES | 95% NO |
| 26–27 | 17% YES | 83% NO |
| 32+ | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Market context
The 2026 midterm elections will determine the party affiliation of the nation's governors following votes scheduled for November 3, 2026. Thirty-six governorships will be contested that cycle, making the outcome a significant indicator of broader political momentum heading into the 2028 presidential election. The current order book on Polymarket implies a 35% probability that Republicans will control more governorships after these elections than they do presently, suggesting traders are pricing in Democratic net gains or stability in the gubernatorial landscape.
Historically, the party holding the White House typically experiences losses in midterm elections, though gubernatorial races often diverge from national patterns due to localised dynamics and candidate quality. In 2022, Republicans gained a net one governorship despite broader midterm headwinds, whilst in 2018 Democrats gained seven. The current probability reflects uncertainty about whether 2026 will follow typical midterm patterns or whether state-level factors will dominate. Key variables include the political environment in 2026, incumbent retirements, and the competitiveness of specific races in states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona and Nevada.
Traders should monitor candidate announcements throughout 2025 and early 2026, particularly high-profile retirements or primary contests that could shift race dynamics. Polling in key swing-state gubernatorial races will become increasingly relevant from mid-2025 onwards. Special elections or vacancies occurring before the November 2026 deadline could also affect the final count, as the market's resolution criteria include all gubernatorial elections scheduled by October 31, 2026.
Wikipedia Context
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Maine Republican PartyThe Maine Republican Party is an affiliate of the United States Republican Party in Maine. It was founded in Strong, Maine, on August 7, 1854. The party currently does not control the governor's office or either chamber of the Maine Legislature, nor either of Maine's two U.S. House. The only federal elected office that the party controls is one of Maine's tw
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Factions in the Republican Party (United States)
The Republican Party in the United States includes several factions, or wings. During the 19th century, Republican factions included the Half-Breeds, who supported civil service reform; the Radical Republicans, who advocated the immediate and total abolition of slavery, and later advocated civil rights for freedmen during the Reconstruction era; and the St
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MAGA movementThe Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement is an American political movement that began with Donald Trump's announcement initiating a campaign in the 2016 United States presidential election. The movement is closely aligned with Trumpism, a set of ideologies and beliefs surrounding Trump. Due to the alignment with Trumpism, the movement commonly advocates
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2016 United States presidential election in MaineThe 2016 United States presidential election in Maine was held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Maine voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, businessman,
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "How many Republican Governors after the 2026 midterm elections?" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$667K in lifetime turnover and $72K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 10% by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $175 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 5 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 November 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "How many Republican Governors after the 2026 midterm elections?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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