Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Republican Party | 93% YES | 8% NO |
| Other | — | |
| B | — | |
| D | — | |
| Democratic Party | 7% YES | 93% NO |
| A | — | |
| C | — | |
| E | — | |
Oklahoma's 4th congressional district will elect a representative to the U.S. House in the 2026 midterm elections on 4 November. The current order book on Polymarket prices Republican retention of the seat at 93%, reflecting strong historical Republican performance in this rural and exurban district centred on Tulsa's western suburbs and extending into the panhandle. The 93% implied probability suggests traders assess Democratic pickup chances as minimal, though the market remains open to adjustment as the cycle develops.
OK-04 has been reliably Republican for two decades. The district voted for Donald Trump by 23 percentage points in 2020 and 27 points in 2024, establishing a structural Republican advantage that would require either significant national Democratic gains or local candidate-specific dynamics to overcome. Comparable Republican-held districts in similar demographic and geographic contexts have shown limited vulnerability to Democratic challenges in recent cycles, though the 2022 midterms demonstrated that anti-incumbent sentiment and candidate quality can occasionally shift expected outcomes in safe seats.
Traders should monitor candidate announcements from both parties, expected in early 2026, and any shifts in national generic ballot polling that might signal broader midterm dynamics. The incumbent, Republican Tom Cole, has not yet confirmed his 2026 intentions; his retirement would introduce uncertainty around candidate quality and potentially alter market pricing. Primary contests on either side could also influence the final matchup composition, particularly if either party fields an unusually strong or weak nominee.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "OK-04 House Election Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$21K in lifetime turnover and $30K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for elections contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
The market has been open for 3 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 November 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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