Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Republican Party | 10% YES | 91% NO |
| Other | — | |
| B | — | |
| D | — | |
| Democratic Party | 90% YES | 11% NO |
| A | — | |
| C | — | |
| E | — | |
New Jersey's 3rd congressional district will elect a representative to the U.S. House in November 2026. The seat is currently held by Democrat Andy Kim, who won the seat in 2022 with 51% of the vote in a district that leans Democratic. The district encompasses parts of central New Jersey including Princeton and New Brunswick. The 10% implied probability on the order book reflects a heavily Democratic-favoured outcome, with traders pricing in substantial structural advantages for the incumbent party in a district that voted for Joe Biden by roughly 10 percentage points in 2020.
Historical context suggests this probability warrants scrutiny. New Jersey's 3rd has shifted considerably over the past decade—it was held by Republican Tom MacArthur from 2015 to 2019 before Kim's 2022 victory. Midterm elections typically see the party holding the presidency face headwinds; if Democrats control the White House through 2026, this could create offsetting pressure against Kim's incumbency advantage. Comparable suburban New Jersey seats have proven competitive when national conditions favour Republicans, though demographic trends in the district have trended Democratic.
Key catalysts include the formal announcement of Republican candidates, expected in early 2026, and any significant shifts in national approval ratings or economic conditions that would shape the midterm environment. The primary election calendar in New Jersey typically concludes by June, providing clarity on the general election matchup by summer. Traders should monitor whether Kim faces primary challenges and track polling releases as the election approaches, particularly any surveys showing movement in the district itself.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "NJ-03 House Election Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$60 in lifetime turnover and $7K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for elections contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 3 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 November 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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