Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Michigan. If no 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Michigan Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Mallory McMorrow | 28% YES | 72% NO |
| Haley Stevens | 19% YES | 81% NO |
| Abdul El-Sayed | 52% YES | 49% NO |
| Dana Nessel | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Rashida Tlaib | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Sarah Anthony | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Kristen McDonald Rivet | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Andy Levin | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Michigan will hold a Democratic primary election in 2026 to select its nominee for the U.S. Senate seat currently held by Democrat Debbie Stabenow, who is retiring. The Democratic primary winner will face Republican opposition in the general election. Polymarket's order book is currently pricing this outcome at 28% implied probability, reflecting uncertainty about whether a contested Democratic primary will materialise and, if it does, which candidate will prevail.
Historical precedent suggests Michigan Democratic primaries for statewide office typically draw multiple candidates when an open seat emerges. The 2018 gubernatorial primary saw Gretchen Whitmer win with roughly 53% of the vote in a four-way race, whilst the 2020 presidential primary was effectively decided by Super Tuesday momentum. The current 28% probability implies traders are pricing in either a low likelihood of a primary occurring (perhaps due to party consolidation around a single candidate) or substantial fragmentation that would require a runoff or extended counting period.
Key catalysts include formal candidate announcements, which typically accelerate in late 2025 and early 2026, and the Michigan Democratic Party's official primary calendar, expected to be finalised by late 2024. Federal election law changes and any potential ballot access challenges could alter the primary structure. Traders should monitor endorsements from Michigan's Democratic establishment and national party figures, as these often signal frontrunner status and can affect field composition before ballots are cast.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$520K in lifetime turnover and $90K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for elections contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $632 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 8 months — long enough that the order book is mature and price is well-anchored to fundamentals.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 4 August 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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