Trade: Kansas Senate Election Winner
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $19K
- Total Volume
- $27K
- 24h Volume
- —
- Open Interest
- $9K
Market outcomes
| Republican | 82% YES | 19% NO |
| Person B | — | |
| Democrat | 17% YES | 84% NO |
| Person A | — | |
| Person C | — | |
| Person E | — | |
| Person G | — | |
| Person I | — | |
Market context
The 2026 midterm election will determine Kansas's U.S. Senate seat, currently held by Republican Roger Marshall, who is eligible for re-election. The race will take place on 3 November 2026, with any runoff occurring thereafter. The market's 82% implied probability for a Republican victory reflects the state's historical voting patterns and current political composition, with this probability formed through active trading on Polymarket's order book.
Kansas has voted Republican in every presidential election since 1964 and has not elected a Democratic senator since 1932. The state's structural Republican lean has widened in recent cycles: Donald Trump won Kansas by 15 percentage points in 2020 and by 23 points in 2024. Comparable Senate races in similarly red states—such as Missouri, Oklahoma, and Nebraska—have produced Republican victories even when national conditions favoured Democrats. The 82% probability aligns with historical precedent for Republican performance in statewide Kansas elections.
Traders should monitor candidate announcements, particularly whether the Democratic Party fields a competitive nominee or whether recruitment efforts focus resources elsewhere. Marshall's approval ratings and any primary challenges from within the Republican party warrant attention. National political conditions in 2026, including midterm dynamics and economic factors, will influence turnout and persuadable voters. The Kansas primary election is scheduled for 4 August 2026, providing a key data point on candidate viability before the general election.
Wikipedia Context
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Kansas SenateThe Kansas Senate is the upper house of the Kansas Legislature, the state legislature of the U.S. State of Kansas. It is composed of 40 senators elected from single-member districts, each with a population of about 73,000 inhabitants. Members of the Senate are elected to a four-year term. There is no limit to the number of terms that a senator may serve. The
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Kansas Senate Bill 244Kansas Senate Bill 244 is a bill that was passed by the Kansas Legislature on January 28, 2026.
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Kansas Senate Bill 63
Kansas Senate Bill 63 , also known as the Help Not Harm Act, is a 2025 law in the state of Kansas that bans gender-affirming care for transgender people under 18, allows disciplinary actions against medical providers who do give such care and requires transgender Kansans under 18 to medically detransition by December 31, 2025.
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Kansas Senate Bill 180
Kansas SB 180 or the Kansas Women's Bill of Rights is a bill that that defines sex to refer outside of transgender and intersex individuals in law. The bill defines intersex conditions such as Complete androgen insensitivity syndrome as being male, and defines sex by gonadal tissue. Kansas governor Laura Kelly vetoed the bill in April 2023. On April 26th and
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Kansas Senate Election Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$27K in lifetime turnover and $19K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for elections contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
The market has been open for 7 months — long enough that the order book is mature and price is well-anchored to fundamentals.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 November 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Kansas Senate Election Winner"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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