Trade: Florida Governor Election Winner
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $28K
- Total Volume
- $18K
- 24h Volume
- $19
- Open Interest
- $6K
Market outcomes
| Republican | 80% YES | 21% NO |
| Option B | — | |
| Option D | — | |
| Option F | — | |
| Option H | — | |
| Option J | — | |
| Democrat | 20% YES | 81% NO |
| Option A | — | |
Market context
Florida will hold its next gubernatorial election in November 2026, with the winner taking office in January 2027. The current order book on Polymarket implies a 79% probability that a Republican candidate will win the race, reflecting the state's recent electoral trajectory. This probability is being formed by traders pricing in both historical voting patterns and current political positioning.
Florida has trended Republican in statewide races over the past decade, with Ron DeSantis winning re-election as governor in 2022 with 59% of the vote—a substantial margin that expanded the party's advantage in a state Democrats once considered competitive. The Republican lean in presidential elections has also strengthened, with Donald Trump winning Florida by 3.3 percentage points in 2020 and by a larger margin in 2016. However, gubernatorial races can diverge from presidential performance; the 79% implied probability reflects confidence in Republican durability rather than certainty, leaving meaningful room for Democratic gains if national conditions shift or a particularly strong Democratic candidate emerges.
Key catalysts for traders include the formal announcement of major candidates, typically occurring through 2025 and into early 2026. The Democratic Party's candidate selection will be critical—whether Florida Democrats nominate a statewide elected official with existing name recognition or attempt to build a challenger from outside traditional politics. National economic conditions, approval ratings of sitting Republican leadership, and turnout dynamics in Miami-Dade and Broward counties will shape how the race tightens or widens as November 2026 approaches. The settlement window closes on 3 November 2026, with resolution sourced to the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC.
Wikipedia Context
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Governor of FloridaThe governor of Florida is the head of government of the U.S. state of Florida. The governor is the head of the executive branch of the government of Florida and is the commander-in-chief of the Florida National Guard and Florida State Guard.
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Florida Governor's MansionThe Florida Governor's Mansion is a historic U.S. residence in Tallahassee, Florida, and the official residence of the governor of Florida. On July 20, 2006, it was added to the U.S. National Register of Historic Places.
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Rick ScottRichard Lynn Scott is an American attorney, businessman, politician, and Navy veteran serving as the senior United States senator from Florida, a seat he has held since 2019. A member of the Republican Party, he served from 2011 to 2019 as the 45th governor of Florida.
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List of governors of FloridaThe governor of Florida is the head of government of the U.S. state of Florida. The governor is the head of the executive branch of the government of Florida and is the commander-in-chief of the Florida National Guard and Florida State Guard.
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Florida Governor Election Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$18K in lifetime turnover and $28K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for elections contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $19 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 7 months — long enough that the order book is mature and price is well-anchored to fundamentals.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 November 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Florida Governor Election Winner"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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