Resolution criteria on PolyGram: If the listed person visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed person physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not the listed person enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. For markets referring to “any U.S. House member” or “any U.S. Senator,” the individual must be a duly sworn and actively serving member of the respective chamber of the United States Congress at the time of entry into Iran.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Benjamin Netanyahu | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| Pete Hegseth | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| Any U.S. House member | 5% YES | 95% NO |
| Any U.S. Senator | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| JD Vance | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| Marco Rubio | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| Donald Trump | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| Jared Kushner | 2% YES | 98% NO |
The market tests whether a specified individual will physically enter Iran's terrestrial territory between now and 30 June 2026. The 1% implied probability reflects the substantial barriers to such a visit, including U.S. travel restrictions, diplomatic tensions, and the absence of regular civilian or official travel channels for most Western nationals. The current order book on Polymarket is pricing this as an extremely unlikely event, with traders demanding substantial odds against resolution.
Historical precedent suggests high-profile Western visits to Iran remain exceptionally rare outside formal diplomatic contexts. The last significant visit by a prominent Western figure occurred in 2016 when the nuclear deal was implemented, creating a brief window of improved relations. Since then, U.S.–Iran tensions have intensified following the 2018 withdrawal from the JCPOA, the 2020 assassination of Qasem Soleimani, and subsequent regional escalations. No sitting U.S. official has visited Iran since 2015, and private citizens face severe legal and practical obstacles.
Catalysts that could shift probabilities include unexpected diplomatic breakthroughs, prisoner exchanges requiring in-person negotiations, or dramatic shifts in U.S. foreign policy following the 2024 election cycle. Traders should monitor announcements from the State Department regarding travel advisories, any multilateral negotiations on the nuclear programme, and statements from Iranian officials about welcoming Western visitors. Recent reporting from Reuters and AP News indicates no scheduled high-level diplomatic visits are anticipated, though geopolitical developments could alter this rapidly.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Who will enter Iran by June 30?" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$385K in lifetime turnover and $133K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $351 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 2 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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