Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual officially announces that they are running for U.S. President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individual (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 13% YES | 88% NO |
| Stephen A. Smith | 11% YES | 90% NO |
| Jon Ossoff | 10% YES | 90% NO |
| Cory Booker | 6% YES | 94% NO |
| Rahm Emanuel | 23% YES | 78% NO |
| John Fetterman | 12% YES | 88% NO |
| Hillary Clinton | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| LeBron James | 3% YES | 97% NO |
The market tests whether a specific individual will publicly declare their intention to run for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before the close of 2026. An official announcement—whether via speech, social media, or formal statement—triggers resolution to Yes, independent of subsequent filing or candidacy status. The 13% implied probability reflects current order book positioning on Polymarket, where traders are pricing in relatively low conviction that this announcement occurs within the settlement window.
Historical precedent suggests early declarations remain uncommon among serious contenders. In 2016 and 2020, most major candidates announced between late 2014 and mid-2015, clustering announcements roughly 18–24 months before the general election. However, exploratory committees and "testing the waters" activities often precede formal announcements by months. The 2024 cycle saw some candidates delay declarations until early 2023, whilst others signalled intent through media appearances and fundraising activity well before formal announcement. This variance in timing patterns explains why markets assign meaningful probability to both early and late announcement scenarios.
Traders should monitor scheduled political events through 2026, including midterm cycles, state party conventions, and media coverage indicating serious presidential exploration. Recent reporting on potential 2028 candidates has remained speculative, with most figures maintaining ambiguity about timing. Any shift toward concrete campaign infrastructure—senior staff hires, polling investments, or explicit media statements about 2028 intentions—would likely move implied probability materially. The settlement window's closure at year-end 2026 creates a hard deadline that concentrates announcement risk into the final months of that calendar year.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Who will announce Presidential run before 2027?" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$638K in lifetime turnover and $493K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 10% by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $284 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 6 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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