Resolution criteria on PolyGram: On December 16, 2025, President Donald Trump issued a proclamation titled “Restricting and Limiting the Entry of Foreign Nationals to Protect the Security of the United States”, which updated and expanded partial and full suspensions of entry into the U.S. for nationals of various countries (see: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/12/restricting-and-limiting-the-entry-of-foreign-nationals-to-protect-the-security-of-the-united-states/). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump issues any executive order, signs any bill into law, or if the Trump administration otherwise takes any formal action which is aimed at fully or partially suspending entry into the U.S.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| June 30 | 47% YES | 53% NO |
| December 31, 2026 | 75% YES | 25% NO |
On 16 December 2025, President Trump issued a proclamation suspending entry for nationals of multiple countries, citing security concerns. The market tests whether additional countries will face similar restrictions through executive action, legislation, or administrative measures before year-end 2026. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 56% implied probability of at least one further suspension, suggesting traders assess meaningful but uncertain odds of expansion.
Trump's first term saw travel restrictions on predominantly Muslim-majority nations, initially affecting six countries before expanding to thirteen by 2020. The pattern demonstrated both the executive's capacity to act unilaterally on entry restrictions and the iterative nature of such policies—initial proclamations frequently preceded supplementary measures within months. The December 2025 proclamation itself represents an expansion of prior restrictions, establishing precedent for incremental rather than wholesale policy shifts. Historical precedent suggests the threshold for additional suspensions is materially lower than for wholly novel policy categories.
Traders should monitor State Department threat assessments, congressional immigration proposals, and any security incidents cited as justification for expanded restrictions. The Trump administration's stated focus on border security and vetting procedures creates multiple potential triggering events through 2026. Recent reporting indicates ongoing reviews of visa programmes and entry protocols, though no specific timeline for further proclamations has been announced. The 56% probability reflects genuine uncertainty about both the administration's prioritisation of additional restrictions versus consolidation of existing measures, and the political feasibility of further expansions.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Trump suspends U.S. entry for more countries by...?" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$7K in lifetime turnover and $189 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 5 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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