Resolution criteria on PolyGram: Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag) in this election. If voting in the Swedish parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| Moderate Party (M) | 54% YES | 46% NO |
| Centre Party (C) | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| Citizens' Coalition (MED) | 4% YES | 96% NO |
| Party B | — | |
| Party D | — | |
| Party E | — | |
| Party H | — | |
Sweden will hold parliamentary elections on 13 September 2026, with this market resolving to whichever party secures the third-largest seat count in the 349-seat Riksdag. The current order book on Polymarket implies just 2% probability for any single named party achieving third place, reflecting substantial uncertainty about the final configuration. The settlement hinges on seat allocation rather than vote share, introducing a layer of complexity given Sweden's proportional representation system where minor variations in voting can shift rankings.
Historically, Sweden's parliamentary landscape has remained relatively stable, with the Social Democrats and Moderate Party consistently finishing in the top two positions across recent elections. The Sweden Democrats' rise as a significant force since 2018 has altered traditional dynamics, though they have not yet displaced either major party from the top two. Third place has typically alternated between the Sweden Democrats, Left Party, Centre Party, and Greens depending on electoral cycles, suggesting genuine competition for this position rather than a foregone conclusion.
Traders should monitor coalition negotiations and policy announcements from mid-2025 onwards, as these shape voter behaviour heading into the election. Economic conditions—particularly inflation, employment figures, and housing costs—will influence support patterns across the ideological spectrum. The timing of any government formation talks post-election could also affect how parties are perceived, though this market resolves purely on seat count from the election itself, not subsequent parliamentary manoeuvres.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Sweden Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$4K in lifetime turnover and $92K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $0 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 13 September 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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