Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Serbian parliamentary election is officially scheduled between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." This market is about whether a date for the next Serbian parliamentary election is formally announced within the stated timeframe. The date the election is scheduled to take place on will have no effect on the resolution to this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Serbia, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Serbian Parliamentary Election called before 2027? | 89% YES | 11% NO |
Serbia's next parliamentary election is currently scheduled for 2028, but the 87% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects substantial trader conviction that the government will call an early election before the end of 2026. The Serbian political system permits early dissolution of parliament, and recent years have seen multiple instances of snap elections triggered by coalition instability or political crises. The current crowd probability suggests traders assess meaningful risk of governmental breakdown or strategic political manoeuvring that would necessitate returning to the ballot box within the next two years.
Historical precedent provides context for this elevated probability. Serbia held snap elections in 2012 and 2016 when ruling coalitions fractured, and the country's political landscape has remained volatile despite surface stability. President Aleksandar Vučić's Serbian Progressive Party has dominated recent cycles, yet coalition management with smaller parties has proven fragile. The 2024 parliamentary elections occurred amid significant political turbulence, and tensions between coalition partners over policy direction and ministerial positions have periodically threatened government continuity.
Traders monitoring this market should track developments in Serbia's ruling coalition dynamics, particularly disputes over judicial reform, EU integration timelines, and relations with Kosovo. Any significant cabinet resignations, parliamentary confidence votes, or public statements from coalition partners regarding government viability could shift probability materially. International pressure regarding democratic standards and rule of law—areas where Serbia faces ongoing EU scrutiny—may also precipitate early elections if used as leverage by opposition or coalition members seeking political advantage.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Serbian Parliamentary Election called before 2027?" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$33K in lifetime turnover and $14K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 4 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 89%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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