Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ali Khamenei visits Russia by the listed date, ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "visit" is defined as Ali Khamenei physically entering the terrestrial territory of Russia in a voluntary capacity. Whether or not Ali Khamenei enters Russian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. Entering Russia requires physically entering sovereign Russian territory, including all Russian federal subjects and territories. Areas under Russian control but not under Russian sovereignty (e.g., Crimea) do not count.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| March 31 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| June 30 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Ali Khamenei, Iran's Supreme Leader since 1989, has never made an official state visit to Russia despite decades of strategic partnership between the two nations. The current market prices a zero per cent probability of such a visit occurring by end of 2026, reflecting the extreme rarity of such an event and the practical constraints surrounding Khamenei's movements. On Polymarket's order book, this pricing reflects both the historical precedent and the geopolitical realities that have prevented this visit to date.
Khamenei's international travel has been exceptionally limited throughout his tenure. He visited the Soviet Union once in 1989 shortly after assuming power, but has made virtually no foreign visits since, citing security concerns and the demands of his domestic role. By contrast, Iranian presidents and foreign ministers regularly visit Moscow for bilateral meetings. The zero probability also reflects Khamenei's advanced age—he is 85—and his stated preference for conducting diplomacy through delegations rather than personal appearances abroad.
Traders should monitor several potential catalysts: major shifts in US-Iran relations that might alter security calculations, significant escalations in the Ukraine conflict that could prompt Iranian leadership to demonstrate solidarity with Russia in person, or unexpected health developments affecting Khamenei's capacity for travel. Recent reporting from Reuters and AP News indicates no scheduled visits or diplomatic initiatives suggesting such a journey is under consideration. The settlement window extends through end-2026, providing roughly two years for circumstances to shift materially from current conditions.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Khamenei visits Russia by...?" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$98K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 4 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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