Resolution criteria on PolyGram: The 2026 Hackney mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on May 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Hackney as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the Hackney Council.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Vahid Almasi | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Zoë Garbett | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Tareke Gregg | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Eva Steinhardt | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Caroline Woodley | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Other | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Person A | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Person B | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Hackney Council will hold mayoral elections on 7 May 2026, with the winner taking office as the next mayor of the London borough. The market settles on the identity of whoever wins that election, excluding any interim appointments made beforehand. Current order book pricing reflects 0% implied probability for a YES resolution, suggesting either extreme uncertainty about which candidate will prevail or minimal trading activity establishing a floor price.
Hackney has been controlled by Labour since 1971, with mayoral elections typically producing Labour victors in a constituency where the party holds roughly 75% of council seats. Historical precedent indicates the incumbent party's candidate faces minimal serious challenge in mayoral contests, though individual candidate popularity and local issues can shift margins. The 2022 mayoral election saw Labour's Feryal Demirci elected with strong backing from the council's dominant group.
Key catalysts for traders include formal candidate announcements from Labour and opposition parties, expected in early 2026, and any significant shifts in council dynamics or local political controversy that might weaken the incumbent administration's position. The settlement window extends to 30 April 2027, providing substantial time for result confirmation, though the election itself occurs in May 2026. Traders should monitor Hackney Council's official communications and local reporting from outlets covering London politics for developments affecting candidate viability or campaign momentum in the months preceding the election.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Hackney Mayoral Election Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$46K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 7 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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