Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Connecticut, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Connecticut Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Connecticut Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Erin Stewart | 20% YES | 80% NO |
| Timothy Wilcox | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| Betsy McCaughey | 5% YES | 95% NO |
| Candidate C | — | |
| Candidate E | — | |
| Candidate G | — | |
| Candidate I | — | |
| Candidate K | — | |
Connecticut's Republican Party will hold its gubernatorial primary on 11 August 2026, with the winner becoming the party's nominee for the general election. The current order book on Polymarket prices the probability of a contested Republican primary occurring at 21%, implying a 79% likelihood that either no primary materialises or the market resolves to "Other" under the stated conditions.
Connecticut has not elected a Republican governor since 1990, when M. Jodi Rell won office. The state's political lean towards Democrats has intensified over three decades, with Republicans holding minimal statewide executive power. Historical precedent suggests low enthusiasm for a competitive Republican primary in an unfavourable electoral environment. The 21% implied probability reflects scepticism about whether sufficient candidate recruitment and party infrastructure will materialise to produce a genuine contested primary rather than a coronation or nominal challenge.
Key catalysts include formal candidate announcements and filing deadlines in the coming months, which will signal whether the Connecticut Republican Party can field multiple viable contenders. The party's recent performance in statewide races and any shifts in national Republican momentum could influence recruitment efforts. Additionally, changes to Connecticut's primary rules or scheduling—though unlikely given the fixed August date—would constitute material developments. Traders should monitor Connecticut Republican Party communications and candidate declarations through early 2026, as the absence of announced challengers by spring would substantially increase the probability of resolution to "Other."
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Connecticut Governor Republican Primary Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$13K in lifetime turnover and $11K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 5 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 11 August 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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