Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Democratic Party | 74% YES | 27% NO |
| A | — | |
| B | — | |
| C | — | |
| D | — | |
| E | — | |
| Republican Party | 28% YES | 73% NO |
| Other | — | |
Arizona's 6th congressional district will elect a representative to the U.S. House in the 2026 midterm elections on 4 November. The current order book on Polymarket prices the Republican candidate at 80% implied probability, reflecting market participants' assessment of the seat's partisan lean and recent electoral history. The district has been reliably Republican territory, though Arizona's statewide political dynamics have shifted considerably in recent election cycles, creating some uncertainty about suburban and independent voter behaviour in midterm conditions.
Historical context matters here: AZ-06 has voted Republican in every House election this century, including 2020 and 2022 when the state moved leftward. The district's Republican performance has typically exceeded the national midterm environment, suggesting structural advantages for the GOP nominee. However, Arizona's 2020 and 2022 results demonstrated that suburban districts can shift faster than historical patterns suggest, particularly where education levels and demographic composition favour Democratic gains. The 80% probability reflects confidence in Republican retention whilst acknowledging genuine competitive risk.
Key variables for traders include candidate announcements and recruitment by both parties, expected in late 2025 and early 2026. Redistricting effects matter—Arizona's independent commission redrew the district following 2020, and any subsequent legal challenges could alter boundaries before 2026. National economic conditions, presidential approval ratings, and turnout models in a midterm year without a presidential race will shape the environment. Local primary contests and any significant candidate quality disparities will move the market as information crystallises through 2025 and into the election year.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "AZ-06 House Election Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$1K in lifetime turnover and $4K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $85 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for 5 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 4 November 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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