Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if any sitting Member of Parliament (MP) in the Canadian House of Commons changes parties by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Changes parties” refers to an MP ceasing to be a member of one political party’s parliamentary caucus and joining another political party’s parliamentary caucus. A transition from independent status into a party’s caucus, or from a party’s caucus to independent status will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| April 30 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| May 31 | 16% YES | 85% NO |
| May 15 | 6% YES | 94% NO |
The market concerns whether any sitting Member of Parliament in Canada's House of Commons will switch from one party's caucus to another between now and 30 June 2026. The resolution excludes MPs moving to or from independent status; only direct party-to-party transfers count. The current 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects the absence of active bids at any price level, suggesting minimal trader conviction that such a floor-crossing will occur within the settlement window.
Floor-crossing in Canadian federal politics has been relatively uncommon in recent decades compared to earlier periods. Between 2000 and 2020, only a handful of MPs switched parties mid-term, with notable examples including Belinda Stronach (2005) and a small number of others. The rarity of such moves reflects stronger party discipline and the electoral costs MPs face when abandoning their original caucus. The current Parliament, elected in September 2021, has seen no floor-crossings to date, and the governing Liberal minority government under Justin Trudeau has maintained its coalition with the NDP since March 2022, reducing immediate incentive for defections.
Traders monitoring this market should watch for signs of parliamentary instability, particularly any collapse of the Liberal-NDP confidence agreement or significant internal party tensions. Recent reporting on Liberal caucus dissatisfaction with Trudeau's leadership (notably in late 2024) created speculation about potential departures, though no formal floor-crossings materialised. The 18-month window extends through a period when a federal election could be called, which typically increases defection risk as MPs reassess their electoral prospects. Any announcement of an MP leaving their caucus would immediately resolve this market to Yes.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Another Canadian MP crosses the floor by...?" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$467 in lifetime turnover and $1K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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