Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Antonio Reynoso | 25% YES | 75% NO |
| Kristen Gonzalez | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Julie Won | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| Lincoln Restler | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| Claire Valdez | 72% YES | 28% NO |
| Candidate B | — | |
| Candidate D | — | |
| Candidate F | — | |
New York's 7th congressional district will hold a Democratic primary on 23 June 2026 to select the party's nominee for the House seat in that year's midterm elections. The current order book on Polymarket is pricing the YES outcome—that a nominee will be announced by the 3 November 2026 deadline—at 25%, implying a 75% probability that no nominee emerges or is announced within the specified timeframe. This pricing reflects either significant uncertainty about whether a primary will proceed as scheduled or expectations of substantial delays in the formal nomination process.
Historical precedent suggests Democratic primary nominations typically conclude on or shortly after their scheduled dates, with formal nominee announcements following within weeks rather than months. The 2024 cycle saw most House primaries resolved by their election dates, though some districts experienced delays in official party certification. The current 25% YES probability appears to discount the baseline expectation that a primary election will produce a nominee within the settlement window, suggesting the market is pricing in either procedural complications, potential postponements, or ambiguity around what constitutes an "announced" nominee under the resolution criteria.
Traders should monitor New York State Democratic Party announcements regarding the NY-07 primary schedule, candidate filing deadlines (typically in March for June primaries), and any redistricting or legal challenges that could affect the district's composition. Recent reporting on New York primary procedures and any statements from Democrats.org clarifying nomination announcement timelines will be critical catalysts. The resolution hinges on whether formal nominee announcement occurs by the November deadline, making procedural clarity from state party officials a key watch point.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "NY-07 Democratic Primary Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$95K in lifetime turnover and $77K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for elections contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $243 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 6 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 23 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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