Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Democratic Party | 93% YES | 8% NO |
| A | — | |
| C | — | |
| E | — | |
| Republican Party | 8% YES | 93% NO |
| Other | — | |
| B | — | |
| D | — | |
New Jersey's 1st congressional district will elect a representative to the U.S. House in the 2026 midterm elections on 4 November. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 93% probability that the seat will be won by a Democrat, with Republican chances priced at 7%. This implied probability has formed through trading activity on the platform and reflects market participants' assessment of the district's electoral leanings and candidate strength heading into the cycle.
NJ-01 has voted Democratic in recent cycles, providing historical context for the current pricing. The district backed Joe Biden by approximately 8 percentage points in 2020 and favoured Democrats in the 2022 midterms, when incumbent Donald Norcross retained the seat with 57% of the vote. Comparable Democratic-leaning districts in the Northeast have shown resilience in midterm environments, though the party holding the White House typically faces headwinds in such elections. The 93% probability reflects both the district's Democratic fundamentals and uncertainty inherent in a race still two years distant.
Traders should monitor candidate announcements and recruitment efforts from both parties, particularly whether Republicans field a competitive challenger. Changes to district boundaries through redistricting, though unlikely at this stage, could alter the electoral calculus. National political conditions—congressional approval ratings, economic sentiment, and turnout dynamics closer to November 2026—will prove material to how the current probability evolves. Early primary activity and fundraising reports in 2025 will offer concrete signals about candidate viability.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "NJ-01 House Election Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$17K in lifetime turnover and $28K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for elections contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $1K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for 3 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 November 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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