Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the NH-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on September 8, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Melissa Bailey | 6% YES | 95% NO |
| Anthony DiLorenzo | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Hollie Noveletsky | 41% YES | 60% NO |
| Person A | — | |
| Person C | — | |
| Person E | — | |
| Person G | — | |
| Person I | — | |
New Hampshire's 1st congressional district will hold a Republican primary on 8 September 2026 to select the party's nominee for the U.S. House seat. The current crowd-implied probability of 6% reflects substantial uncertainty about the eventual winner, with the order book pricing in multiple viable candidates at this early stage. This low probability suggests the market is pricing in either a highly fragmented field or genuine unpredictability about which candidate will emerge from the primary process.
Historical precedent from recent New Hampshire congressional primaries shows that frontrunners often consolidate support in the final weeks before voting. In 2022, NH-01 saw Republican Frank Guinta secure the nomination relatively decisively, though earlier polling had suggested a more competitive race. The current 6% probability may undervalue the eventual nominee's chances if a clear favourite emerges as the primary approaches, or it may reflect genuine consensus that no single candidate has yet established dominance in the district's Republican electorate.
Traders should monitor candidate announcements and endorsements through mid-2026, particularly from established state Republican figures and national party leadership. The New Hampshire Union Leader's editorial positions and polling releases will likely shape market sentiment. Any significant shifts in candidate viability—including withdrawals or unexpected endorsement patterns—could trigger substantial repricing. The settlement window closes 3 November 2026, providing a buffer after the primary vote, though any nominee replacement before election day will not alter the resolution.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "NH-01 Republican Primary Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$39K in lifetime turnover and $8K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for elections contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 3 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 8 September 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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