Resolution criteria on PolyGram: The 2026 Castrovillari, Italy mayoral runoff election is currently scheduled to be held on June 7 and 8, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Castrovillari as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Ernesto Bello | 47% YES | 53% NO |
| Person A | — | |
| Person C | — | |
| Person E | — | |
| Person G | — | |
| Person I | — | |
| Anna De Gaio | 47% YES | 53% NO |
| Other | — | |
Castrovillari, a comune in Calabria's Cosenza province, will hold mayoral elections on 7–8 June 2026, with a potential runoff if no candidate secures an outright majority in the first round. The current order book on Polymarket prices the outcome at 46% implied probability for the YES resolution, reflecting genuine uncertainty about which candidate will ultimately assume office. Italian municipal elections in smaller southern towns typically feature fragmented candidacies and low turnout, creating conditions where second-round dynamics often diverge substantially from first-round results.
Comparable mayoral races in Calabrian municipalities demonstrate that runoff elections frequently produce different winners than initial voting patterns suggest. Coalitions often shift between rounds as candidates with weaker first-round performances endorse stronger contenders, whilst turnout variations between rounds can swing outcomes by several percentage points. The current 46% probability suggests traders view the leading candidate as moderately favoured but far from certain, consistent with historical volatility in Italian municipal runoffs.
Key catalysts include formal candidate registration deadlines, campaign announcements, and any polling data released closer to the election date. The settlement window closes 8 June 2026 at 06:00 UTC, with a fallback resolution to "Other" if results remain unclear by 30 April 2027. Traders should monitor local Calabrian news sources and official Castrovillari municipal communications for developments affecting candidate viability or coalition formation, as these factors have historically determined runoff outcomes in comparable jurisdictions.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Castrovillari Mayoral Election Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$7 in lifetime turnover and $91 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for elections contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $7 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 8 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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