Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Democratic Party | 93% YES | 8% NO |
| A | — | |
| C | — | |
| E | — | |
| Republican Party | 7% YES | 94% NO |
| Other | — | |
| B | — | |
| D | — | |
Arizona's 3rd congressional district will elect a representative to the U.S. House in the 2026 midterm elections on 4 November 2026. The current order book on Polymarket prices this outcome at 93% implied probability for a Republican victory, reflecting substantial confidence in GOP retention of the seat. The district has been represented by Republican Jeff Lakso since 2023, following a competitive 2022 race. Arizona's 3rd remains a relatively safe Republican seat despite the state's recent competitive dynamics at statewide level, where Democrats have made gains in Senate and gubernatorial contests.
Historical context suggests the 93% probability aligns with typical midterm dynamics for an incumbent-held district without significant demographic shifts. The seat has voted Republican in recent cycles, though Arizona's 3rd has shown modest movement towards Democrats compared to the state's 2020 baseline. Comparable districts held by Republicans in purple states typically trade in the 80–92% range when incumbents seek re-election, making this pricing consistent with market assessments of similar races.
Traders should monitor candidate announcements through 2025 and early 2026, particularly whether Lakso seeks re-election and the Democratic primary field. Redistricting effects remain relevant, though Arizona's independent commission finalised boundaries for this cycle. National political environment shifts—congressional approval ratings, inflation dynamics, and midterm historical patterns—will likely drive probability adjustments as the election approaches. Recent polling from Arizona-focused outlets and FiveThirtyEight's aggregate models will provide empirical anchors for reassessing the current 93% valuation.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "AZ-03 House Election Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$12K in lifetime turnover and $24K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for elections contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
The market has been open for 3 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 November 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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