Trade: AL-04 House Election Winner
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $39K
- Total Volume
- $27K
- 24h Volume
- $17
- Open Interest
- $2K
Market outcomes
| Democratic Party | 7% YES | 93% NO |
| A | — | |
| C | — | |
| E | — | |
| Republican Party | 93% YES | 8% NO |
| Other | — | |
| B | — | |
| D | — | |
Market context
Alabama's 4th congressional district will elect a representative to the U.S. House in the 2026 midterm elections on 4 November 2026. The current order book on Polymarket implies a 7% probability that a non-Republican candidate wins the seat, with the remaining 93% probability distributed amongst Republican outcomes. This pricing reflects the district's historical voting patterns and demographic composition, which have consistently favoured Republican candidates in recent cycles.
AL-04 has been represented by Republican Robert Aderholt since 1997, and the district voted approximately 72% for Donald Trump in 2020. Historical precedent suggests that deep-red districts of this profile rarely flip to Democratic control in midterm elections. The 2022 midterms saw Republicans gain seats in similar conservative districts, and Alabama's overall rightward shift has intensified since 2020. Comparable districts with similar Trump margins have produced Republican victories in 99% of contested races over the past three cycles, providing context for why the market currently prices Democratic or independent success at such a low probability.
Key catalysts for traders include candidate announcements, typically occurring in spring 2026, and primary election results in May 2026. The retirement or continuation of Aderholt remains the most significant variable; if he seeks re-election, Republican consolidation becomes more likely. National economic conditions, campaign fundraising disclosures filed quarterly with the Federal Election Commission, and any unexpected demographic shifts in voter registration will shape the probability trajectory through to November 2026.
Wikipedia Context
-
AlmshouseAn almshouse is a form of charitable housing that developed in medieval Europe to provide long-term accommodation for people unable to support themselves, most often the elderly or disabled. Originating from earlier hospital foundations associated with Christian charity, almshouses emerged as distinct institutions by the later medieval period, typically hous
-
Miranda Aldhouse-Green
Miranda Jane Aldhouse-Green, is a British archaeologist and academic, known for her research on the Iron Age and the Celts. She was Professor of Archaeology at Cardiff University from 2006 to 2013. Until about 2000, she published as Miranda Green or Miranda J. Green.
-
Ann AlthouseAnn Althouse is an American law professor and blogger.
-
Alex House
Alexander Charles Albert House is a Canadian actor best known for his Gemini Award winning role in the television series Todd and the Book of Pure Evil.
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "AL-04 House Election Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$27K in lifetime turnover and $39K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for elections contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $17 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 3 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 November 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "AL-04 House Election Winner"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Related prediction markets
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: