Trade: Will Maduro's rule survive a US military engagement?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if both of the following conditions are met. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 1. There is a military engagement between the military forces of the United States of America and Venezuela by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. A "military engagement" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Venezuelan military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify as a military engagement.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
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- Total Volume
- $190K
- 24h Volume
- —
- Open Interest
- $0
Market outcomes
| Will Maduro's rule survive a US military engagement? | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Market context
The market concerns whether Nicolas Maduro remains in power following direct military conflict between the United States and Venezuela before the end of 2025. The 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects the current assessment that such an engagement is extremely unlikely within the settlement window, though the market remains open for traders to position against consensus if they assess material risk differently.
Historical precedent suggests US military intervention in Latin America typically follows either sustained humanitarian crises with regional diplomatic consensus or direct threats to American personnel or territory. Venezuela's ongoing political instability and humanitarian challenges have not yet triggered direct US military action despite years of sanctions and diplomatic pressure. The 2019 Guaidó opposition movement and subsequent failed coup attempts occurred without US military involvement, establishing a pattern of American restraint despite regime change rhetoric. Regional actors including Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico have generally resisted calls for military intervention, preferring diplomatic and economic pressure.
Near-term catalysts centre on escalation dynamics involving the Guyana-Venezuela border dispute over the Essequibo region, which has seen increased military posturing since 2023. The International Court of Justice ruling in December 2023 upheld Guyana's territorial claim, yet military confrontation remains limited to naval positioning. Traders should monitor statements from the incoming Trump administration regarding Venezuela policy, any significant attacks on US diplomatic facilities or personnel, and whether regional consensus shifts toward military options. Reuters reported in November 2024 that Maduro's security forces have consolidated control despite opposition fragmentation, reducing immediate pressure for external intervention.
Wikipedia Context
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Nicolás Maduro GuerraNicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra, also referred to as Nicolás Maduro Jr., Maduro Jr., or Nicolasito, is a Venezuelan politician and economist and the son of the President of Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro. Maduro Jr. has served as a deputy in the Venezuelan National Assembly in the V Legislature for the state of La Guaira since 2021, the unicameral legislative body
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Will Maduro's rule survive a US military engagement?" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 0% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$190K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 6 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
What is the current probability for "Will Maduro's rule survive a US military engagement?"?
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 0%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Will Maduro's rule survive a US military engagement?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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