Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed Senator votes “Yea” on the first final U.S. Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Kevin Warsh to be Chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The vote refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions. If the nomination passes unanimously or without individual voting (e.g. a voice vote), this market will resolve to “Yes”. If the nomination is rejected unanimously or without individual voting, this market will resolve to “No”. If no qualifying vote is held by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Elizabeth Warren | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| Lisa Murkowski | 78% YES | 22% NO |
| Bernie Sanders | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| Kevin Cramer | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Thom Tillis | 99% YES | 1% NO |
| Chuck Schumer | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| John Kennedy | 96% YES | 4% NO |
Kevin Warsh, a former Federal Reserve governor and investment banker, would require Senate confirmation to become Chair of the Federal Reserve. The current 1% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects extremely low conviction that any individual senator will vote to confirm him, though the market structure allows for unanimous passage or voice votes to resolve affirmatively. Warsh has not been formally nominated as of early 2025, and no confirmation hearing date has been scheduled. The settlement window extends to June 2026, providing substantial time for nomination and confirmation proceedings.
Historical Fed Chair confirmations have typically commanded broad bipartisan support, with most nominees passing with supermajority margins. Janet Yellen (2014) received 56 affirmative votes, Jerome Powell (2018) secured 84 votes, and Lael Brainard's 2022 confirmation saw 70 senators vote yes. These precedents suggest that absent extraordinary circumstances, a Fed Chair nominee with mainstream economic credentials would expect significant cross-party backing. Warsh's previous Fed service and establishment credentials position him within the range of historically confirmable candidates, though his investment banking background and hawkish monetary policy views may generate opposition from progressive senators.
Traders should monitor whether Warsh receives a formal nomination announcement from the White House, the composition of any Senate Banking Committee, and broader political dynamics around Federal Reserve policy. Economic conditions and inflation trends heading into 2026 will likely influence senators' willingness to support continuity in Fed leadership. Any significant market volatility or policy disagreements between Warsh and the sitting administration could shift confirmation prospects materially.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Who will vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair?" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$100K in lifetime turnover and $36K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $182 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 3 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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