Resolution criteria on PolyGram: The 2025 Dutch general election is scheduled to take place on October 29, 2025. This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the 2025 Dutch general election. If the next Dutch Government after the election is not announced by October 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "No Coalition by October 31". A party will only be considered part of the coalition if it signs the coalition agreement and provides at least one cabinet minister. This market may resolve once the first government is officially announced and sworn in by the monarch, with ministers appointed under non-caretaker circumstances.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| PVV + JA21 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| PVV + VVD + JA21 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| PVV + VVD + JA21 + D66 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| PVV + VVD | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| PVV + CDA | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| PVV + VVD + D66 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| PVV + CDA + JA21 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| PVV + VVD + CDA + JA21 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Dutch voters will elect a new parliament on 29 October 2025, with coalition negotiations expected to follow. The market settles on whichever combination of parties first forms a government and is sworn in by the Dutch monarch, with a backstop resolution to "No Coalition by October 31" if negotiations extend beyond 31 October 2026. The 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects the market's current state rather than any assessment of likelihood; with settlement over a year away and no coalition yet formed, the book may simply lack sufficient liquidity or matching orders to establish meaningful pricing across all possible outcomes.
Dutch coalition formation historically takes two to four months. The 2017 election required 225 days of negotiations before the VVD–CDA–D66 government took office, whilst the 2012 formation concluded in roughly 80 days. Current polling suggests no single bloc commands a majority, making multi-party coalitions necessary. The Socialist Party, PVV, VVD, D66, GroenLinks, PvdA, and ChristenUnie are the primary contenders, though seat distributions remain fluid ahead of the October vote.
Traders should monitor polling releases through autumn 2025, the formal coalition negotiations process following the election, and any statements from party leaders regarding coalition preferences or red lines. The Dutch electoral commission will declare final results within days of the vote, triggering formal negotiations. Key dependencies include whether any party achieves sufficient seats to enable a two-party coalition, and whether ideological or policy disagreements between potential partners prove insurmountable, either accelerating agreement or extending talks beyond the market's settlement window.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Which coalition will form the next Dutch government?" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$70.4M in lifetime turnover and $4K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 7 months — long enough that the order book is mature and price is well-anchored to fundamentals.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 October 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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