Trade: Tulsi Gabbard out by...?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tulsi Gabbard ceases to be the Director of National Intelligence for any period of time between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Gabbard's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $12K
- Total Volume
- $350K
- 24h Volume
- $150
- Open Interest
- $15K
Market outcomes
| March 31 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| June 30 | 17% YES | 84% NO |
| April 30 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Market context
Tulsi Gabbard was confirmed as Director of National Intelligence in November 2024 following Donald Trump's election victory. This market tests whether she will leave the role—through resignation, removal, or any other means—before 31 March 2026. The settlement window extends to 30 June 2026, providing a three-month buffer for announcement verification. An announced departure triggers immediate resolution to Yes, regardless of the effective date.
Historical precedent suggests DNI tenures are relatively stable compared to other cabinet positions. James Clapper served nearly seven years under Obama, whilst Dan Coats lasted three years under Trump's first administration. However, Trump's first term saw notable turnover in senior roles, with several officials departing within 18 months. Gabbard's confirmation faced substantial congressional scrutiny over her foreign policy positions and past statements, which could presage either heightened internal friction or demonstrate she cleared the highest bar already.
The current 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects confidence in her remaining through March 2026—a roughly 15-month horizon. Traders should monitor congressional relations, particularly any public disagreements over intelligence assessments or Ukraine policy, where Gabbard has previously held unconventional positions. Trump administration staffing announcements and any intelligence community controversies would serve as key catalysts. The absence of near-term scheduled congressional hearings or oversight reviews suggests limited near-term pressure points, though unforeseen geopolitical crises could alter dynamics rapidly.
Wikipedia Context
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Tulsi GabbardTulsi Gabbard is an American politician and U.S. military officer serving as the eighth director of national intelligence (DNI) since 2025. She previously served as U.S. representative for Hawaii's 2nd congressional district from 2013 to 2021 and in the Hawaii House of Representatives from 2002 to 2004. Gabbard was a member of the Democratic Party until 2022
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Tulsi Gabbard 2020 presidential campaignThe 2020 presidential campaign of Tulsi Gabbard, the U.S. representative for Hawaii's 2nd congressional district, was announced in January 2019, and officially launched in February 2019. Gabbard was the first female combat veteran to run for president. Her foreign policy platform was described as anti-interventionist and her economic platform was considered
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Political positions of Tulsi GabbardTulsi Gabbard's political positions are influenced by her background as a politician and U.S. military officer. Gabbard served in the United States Congress from 2013 to 2021. She has been serving in the U.S. military since 2003, when she joined the Hawaii Army National Guard, and was deployed to Iraq. In 2020, she transferred to the U.S. Army Reserve and wa
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Tulsi Gabbard out by...?" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$350K in lifetime turnover and $12K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $150 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 4 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Tulsi Gabbard out by...?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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