Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the SAVE America Act (H.R. 7296) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law, or is otherwise enacted into law, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution sources for this market will be Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/7296) and other official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| March 31 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| June 30 | 3% YES | 97% NO |
H.R. 7296, the SAVE America Act, is a House bill that would establish new restrictions on federal spending and budgetary procedures. The legislation has not yet advanced significantly through the legislative process. The current 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects the bill's minimal progress and the structural difficulty of passing comprehensive fiscal reform in a divided Congress. No substantial trading activity has formed a meaningful price; the market is essentially reflecting baseline scepticism rather than active positioning.
Comparable spending-restriction bills offer instructive precedent. The Fiscal Commission Act and various balanced-budget amendment proposals have repeatedly failed to gain sufficient bipartisan support despite periodic revival efforts. Even when one chamber passes fiscal-reform legislation, Senate passage remains a substantial hurdle given the 60-vote threshold for most bills. The current Republican-controlled House and Senate do not guarantee passage of this specific measure, as fiscal hawks and party leadership often diverge on spending priorities and procedural tactics.
Traders should monitor whether H.R. 7296 receives a committee hearing or floor vote in the House before mid-2025, as the settlement window closes in June 2026. Leadership scheduling decisions and any companion Senate bill introduction would signal genuine momentum. Recent Congressional Budget Office reports on federal spending trajectories and any statements from House Budget Committee leadership regarding legislative priorities would clarify whether this bill ranks among leadership's priorities or remains a backbench proposal unlikely to advance.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "H.R. 7296 (SAVE America Act) becomes law by...?" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$64K in lifetime turnover and $5K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 2 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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