Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, is removed from power for any length of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Khamenei will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Supreme Leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Ali Khamenei, Iran's Supreme Leader since 1989, faces a 18-month window through June 2026 in which this market resolves affirmatively if he is removed from power through resignation, detention, or incapacity to perform his duties. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability of "Yes," indicating traders are pricing near-certainty that some disruption to Khamenei's tenure will occur by the settlement date.
Historical precedent offers limited guidance. Iran's Supreme Leader position has proven remarkably durable; Khamenei's predecessor, Ayatollah Khomeini, held the role until his death in 1989. No sitting Supreme Leader has been forcibly removed or detained in the Islamic Republic's 47-year history. Temporary absences due to illness have occurred—Khomeini withdrew from public view in 1986 due to heart problems—but these did not constitute loss of position. The extreme probability implied by current market pricing suggests traders are either heavily discounting low-probability tail risks (sudden health crisis, internal coup, or institutional collapse) or the market may be mispricing baseline continuity.
Near-term catalysts centre on Khamenei's health and succession mechanisms. At 85, any significant medical event could trigger constitutional questions about fitness to serve, though Iran's Guardian Council has shown reluctance to invoke removal procedures. The 2025 presidential election cycle and ongoing tensions with regional actors create potential flashpoints, though these have not historically threatened the Supreme Leader's position directly. Reuters reporting in late 2024 noted continued institutional stability around Khamenei's office despite economic pressures.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$8.2M in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 6 months — long enough that the order book is mature and price is well-anchored to fundamentals.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 100%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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