Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between May 12, 12:00 PM ET and May 19, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data".
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| <5 | 84% YES | 16% NO |
| 20-24 | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| 5-9 | 16% YES | 85% NO |
| 25-29 | 4% YES | 96% NO |
| 30-34 | 6% YES | 94% NO |
| 35-39 | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| 10-14 | 5% YES | 95% NO |
| 15-19 | 2% YES | 98% NO |
Khamenei's X account (@khamenei_ir) represents the official posting channel for Iran's Supreme Leader. This market tracks the volume of main feed posts, quotes and reposts during a specific week in May 2026, excluding replies unless they appear on the main feed. The resolution mechanism relies on the Post Counter tracker at xtracker.polymarket, capturing posts that persist for approximately five minutes or longer.
The 88% implied probability reflects expectations of at least one post during the seven-day window. Historical patterns show Khamenei's account maintains irregular posting frequency, ranging from multiple posts daily to multi-day gaps. The account has served primarily as a messaging platform during significant political moments—particularly around anniversaries of the 1979 revolution, responses to regional developments, and statements on domestic policy. Given the May window contains no major Iranian state holidays or commemorative dates, baseline posting activity would typically be lower than periods surrounding February's revolution anniversary or other symbolic dates.
Traders should monitor developments in Iran-US relations, regional tensions involving Israel or Gulf states, and any scheduled domestic political events that might prompt official statements. The account's posting behaviour has historically responded to external shocks rather than following a predictable calendar. Current order book pricing at 88% YES suggests the market assigns meaningful probability to silence during this particular week, though the threshold for resolution—whether it requires one post or more—remains the critical variable determining whether this probability reflects genuine uncertainty or consensus expectation of minimal activity.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://x.com/khamenei_ir. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Khamenei # posts May 12 - May 19, 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$4K in lifetime turnover and $5K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $2K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://x.com/khamenei_ir. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 19 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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