Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Daniel Noboa ceases to be President of Ecuador for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (Ecuador Time, GMT-5). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Daniel Noboa's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Daniel Noboa and the government of Ecuador; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Daniel Noboa out as President of Ecuador by June 30? | 5% YES | 96% NO |
Daniel Noboa assumed Ecuador's presidency in November 2023 following a special election, with his term scheduled to conclude in May 2025. The market assesses the probability he remains in office through 30 June 2026, a period extending roughly one year beyond his constitutionally mandated term end date. The current 5% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects a baseline expectation of continuity, with traders pricing in the institutional stability required for an incumbent to remain in post during a transition period.
Ecuador's recent political history provides context for interpreting this low probability. The country experienced three presidential removals between 2020 and 2023—Lenín Moreno faced removal attempts, Guillermo Lasso survived an impeachment vote in 2023, and Noboa's predecessor Fernando Villavicencio was assassinated weeks into his term. Gang violence, prison riots, and organised crime have destabilised successive administrations, creating recurring pressure on executive authority. These precedents suggest the 5% figure reflects genuine tail risk rather than dismissing removal as implausible.
Traders should monitor Noboa's handling of security crises, particularly gang-related violence and prison unrest, alongside any constitutional challenges to his authority. Ecuador's legislature has demonstrated willingness to pursue impeachment proceedings against sitting presidents. The transition period following Noboa's scheduled May 2025 term end presents particular vulnerability, as questions over succession procedures and interim governance could create institutional friction. Official announcements from Ecuador's government or credible reporting of resignation or removal would trigger immediate market resolution.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Daniel Noboa out as President of Ecuador by June 30?" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$2K in lifetime turnover and $7K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 5%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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