Trade: VA-07 House Election Winner
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $4K
- Total Volume
- $712
- 24h Volume
- —
- Open Interest
- $317
Market outcomes
| Republican Party | 12% YES | 88% NO |
| Other | — | |
| B | — | |
| D | — | |
| Democratic Party | 89% YES | 11% NO |
| A | — | |
| C | — | |
| E | — | |
Market context
Virginia's 7th congressional district will elect a representative to the U.S. House in the 2026 midterm elections on 4 November. The district, which encompasses parts of central Virginia including Henrico County and surrounding areas, has been represented by Republican Abigail Spanberger since 2019, though she switched to the Democratic Party in 2023. The current 6% implied probability on the order book reflects a heavily Republican-favoured race, with traders pricing in strong structural advantages for the GOP candidate.
The district's recent electoral history provides context for reading this probability. VA-07 has trended Republican in presidential elections, backing Donald Trump by approximately 7 points in 2020 despite Spanberger's House victories. The seat has become increasingly competitive as demographic shifts and partisan realignment reshape Virginia's political geography. Comparable open-seat races in Republican-leaning districts during midterm cycles typically see the party holding the seat maintain substantial advantages, particularly when the opposing party lacks an incumbent.
Traders should monitor candidate announcements and primary outcomes in both parties throughout 2025 and early 2026, as nominee quality significantly influences competitive dynamics in swing-leaning seats. Broader economic conditions and presidential approval ratings closer to the election will shape the national environment affecting Virginia races. Recent redistricting and turnout patterns in special elections or state-level contests will provide updated signals on district composition and voter behaviour.
Wikipedia Context
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Štěpán Vachoušek
Štěpán Vachoušek is a Czech former professional footballer who played as a midfielder. He spent most of his career playing for FK Teplice, but also spent time abroad playing for clubs in France and Austria. He played internationally for the Czech Republic at youth and full level, winning the 2002 UEFA European Under-21 Championship with the under-21 team bef
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Tadeáš Vachoušek
Tadeáš Vachoušek is a Czech footballer who plays as a midfielder for FC Zbrojovka Brno.
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Valehouse ReservoirValehouse Reservoir is a man-made lake in Longdendale in north Derbyshire, England. It was built between 1865 and 1869 as part of the Longdendale Chain of reservoirs, which was built to supply water from the River Etherow to the urban areas of Greater Manchester, while maintaining a constant flow into the river. The upper reservoirs supply the drinking water
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House of VasaThe House of Vasa was a royal house that was founded in 1523 in Sweden. Its members ruled the Kingdom of Sweden from 1523 to 1654 and the Polish–Lithuanian Commonwealth from 1587 to 1668. Its agnatic line became extinct with the death of King John II Casimir Vasa in 1672.
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "VA-07 House Election Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$712 in lifetime turnover and $4K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for elections contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 5 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 4 November 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "VA-07 House Election Winner"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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