Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 South Carolina gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Republican | 91% YES | 10% NO |
| Option B | — | |
| Option D | — | |
| Option F | — | |
| Option H | — | |
| Option J | — | |
| Democrat | 4% YES | 96% NO |
| Option A | — | |
South Carolina will hold its gubernatorial election in November 2026 to determine the state's next chief executive. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 92% implied probability that a winner will be declared, suggesting traders assess a high likelihood of a decisive outcome rather than prolonged legal challenges or contingencies that might prevent settlement. This probability formation reflects baseline expectations around electoral administration and candidate viability in a state with established Republican dominance in statewide races.
South Carolina's recent gubernatorial history provides context for interpreting current market pricing. Governor Henry McMaster won re-election in 2022 with 56% of the vote against Democrat Joe Cunningham, continuing the state's pattern of Republican victories in executive races. The 2026 race will occur in a midterm environment, historically challenging for the party holding the presidency. Comparable gubernatorial markets have typically resolved without settlement complications, though the 8% residual probability of non-resolution may reflect edge cases such as an extremely narrow margin triggering recounts or candidate withdrawal scenarios.
Traders should monitor candidate announcements throughout 2025 and early 2026, particularly regarding the Republican primary field and Democratic nominee selection. Recent reporting on potential candidates and party positioning will shape market expectations. The settlement window closes on 3 November 2026, the day after the election, allowing minimal time for post-election disputes to affect resolution. Changes in candidate quality, fundraising capacity, or unexpected political developments could shift the probability of a clear winner being declared.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "South Carolina Governor Election Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$11K in lifetime turnover and $11K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for elections contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
The market has been open for 7 months — long enough that the order book is mature and price is well-anchored to fundamentals.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 November 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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