Trade: RI-02 House Election Winner
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the RI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $15K
- Total Volume
- $2K
- 24h Volume
- —
- Open Interest
- $593
Market outcomes
| Democratic Party | 92% YES | 8% NO |
| A | — | |
| C | — | |
| E | — | |
| Republican Party | 8% YES | 93% NO |
| Other | — | |
| B | — | |
| D | — | |
Market context
Rhode Island's 2nd congressional district will elect a representative to the U.S. House in the 2026 midterm elections on 4 November. The district, which encompasses much of the state's western and southern regions, has been represented by Democrat Seth Magaziner since 2023. The current 92% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects strong confidence in a Democratic hold, with the spread between YES and NO contracts pricing in substantial Republican underdog odds.
Rhode Island's 2nd district has leaned Democratic in recent cycles, though not uniformly. In 2022, Magaziner won with 51% of the vote against Republican Allan Fung, a relatively competitive margin for a midterm in a Democratic-leaning state. Historical context matters here: the district voted for Biden by roughly 10 percentage points in 2020, suggesting a structural Democratic advantage. However, midterm dynamics often favour the opposition party, and the 92% probability implies traders are discounting meaningful Republican gains nationally or district-specific factors that could narrow the race significantly.
Key catalysts include the composition of the Republican primary field, which will determine the Democratic challenger's opponent, and broader economic conditions heading into late 2026. Magaziner's legislative record and any significant shifts in district demographics or voter registration will shape campaign narratives. National polling trends, particularly regarding congressional generic ballot preferences, will likely drive substantial repricing of this contract as the election approaches. Any major scandal or unexpected retirement would immediately alter the probability structure.
Wikipedia Context
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Riis HousesThe Jacob Riis Houses are a public housing project managed by the New York City Housing Authority (NYCHA) in the Alphabet City neighborhood of Manhattan. The project is located between Avenue D and FDR Drive, spanning two superblocks from 6th Street to 13th Street. The project consists of thirteen buildings, between six and 14 stories each, containing 1,191
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Riel HouseRiel House is a historic house museum in Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada. Built in 1880–1881, it is associated with the family of Louis Riel, a prominent Métis leader in the history of western Canada. Designated a National Historic Site of Canada, Riel House reflects nineteenth-century Métis domestic life in the Red River Settlement and continues to be used for c
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Rice House, Eltham
The Rice House is a residence located at 69 Ryans Road, Eltham, Victoria, Australia, built from 1952-53. Designed by Melbourne architect Kevin Borland for a young couple, whose open mindedness and excitement for progressive/alternative ways of living allowed quite a different archetype for housing, the house is notable for its unusual construction technique
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Rich House Poor HouseRich House Poor House is a British Television program starring Craig Kelly, Adam Stott and others. The program is directed by Danny Fildes, Marcus English, Simon Bowyer and others. The first episode was aired on 30 March 2017. The airing network is Channel 5.
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "RI-02 House Election Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$2K in lifetime turnover and $15K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for elections contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
The market has been open for 3 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 November 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "RI-02 House Election Winner"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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