Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Republican Party | 7% YES | 94% NO |
| Other | — | |
| B | — | |
| D | — | |
| Democratic Party | 93% YES | 8% NO |
| A | — | |
| C | — | |
| E | — | |
New Jersey's 10th congressional district will elect a representative to the U.S. House in the 2026 midterm elections on 4 November. The district, which encompasses parts of northern New Jersey including Jersey City and Newark, has been a Democratic stronghold in recent cycles. The current 7% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects a heavily favoured Democratic outcome, with traders pricing in substantial Republican headwinds needed to flip the seat.
The district's recent electoral history provides context for reading this probability. In 2022, Democrat Donald Payne Jr. won with 82% of the vote; in 2020, the Democratic candidate secured 84%. These margins suggest structural Democratic advantages in voter registration and composition. Comparable districts with similar Democratic performance levels have rarely flipped in midterm cycles, though national swings can create exceptions. The 7% probability assigned to a Republican winner reflects the baseline difficulty of overturning such entrenched Democratic performance, though it allows for tail-risk scenarios involving significant national Republican momentum or local candidate-specific dynamics.
Traders should monitor candidate announcements and primary outcomes in both parties through 2025 and into 2026, as nominee quality significantly influences competitive races. National economic conditions and presidential approval ratings in the two years preceding the election will shape the broader midterm environment. Any redistricting changes, though unlikely given New Jersey's recent cycle, would materially alter district composition and thus candidate viability.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "NJ-10 House Election Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$22K in lifetime turnover and $29K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for elections contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
The market has been open for 3 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 November 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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