Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Genius's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." Only an official token launched by Genius will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count. The token must be actively and publicly tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available.
Crypto-price prediction markets like this one tend to gain volume in the final 48 hours as derivatives traders hedge spot exposure. Odds will populate live once the order book fills with 578 days to resolution, giving the order book ample time to absorb new information.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| $20M | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| $80M | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| $200M | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| $500M | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| $50M | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| $100M | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| $300M | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| $1B | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Genius, an AI-focused platform, is preparing to launch its native token. The market will resolve based on whether the fully diluted valuation reaches a specified threshold within 24 hours of public trading commencing. FDV is calculated by multiplying total token supply by the traded price at the 4:00 PM ET mark on the day following launch. Only an official token from Genius qualifies; synthetic derivatives, stablecoins and memecoin variants are excluded from consideration.
The 100% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects confidence that Genius will achieve the threshold FDV within the settlement window. Historical precedent from recent crypto launches shows that established projects with significant backing typically clear modest FDV targets on day one, particularly when trading volume concentrates in the first 24 hours. Comparable launches from well-capitalised teams have generally exceeded conservative valuation benchmarks, though outcomes depend heavily on initial exchange listings and trading liquidity.
Key catalysts include the official announcement of launch timing, confirmation of which exchanges will list the token, and any pre-launch details about token supply and distribution mechanics. Traders should monitor Genius's official channels and major exchange listings for launch confirmation. Market depth on Polymarket itself remains thin at present, suggesting limited price discovery; the current probability may shift materially once launch details become concrete and trading volume data emerges from spot markets.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
For this market, the resolution date is 1 January 2028. A UMA proposer can submit the outcome from that moment; the two-hour dispute window closes at , and assuming no counter-claim is staked, winning USDC clears to trader balances by approximately .
If a dispute is filed inside the two-hour window, the outcome escalates to UMA token-holder voting, which extends settlement by roughly 48 hours. This particular market has no public resolution feed listed; disputes here are more likely if the underlying outcome is subject to interpretation, in which case the UMA token-vote arbitrates the wording of the original market question.
Crypto-price markets resolve from on-chain exchange data, so the proposer submits within minutes of the cutoff; over 90% of crypto markets clear within three hours of the resolution timestamp. Funds clear directly to your in-app USDC balance on Polygon. Withdrawals are non-custodial: send to any address you control, typical confirmation under 30 seconds, gas paid in USDC if you'd rather not hold MATIC.
Minimum order size on PolyGram is $1.00, with no maximum cap aside from available book depth. Orders route into Polymarket's on-chain CLOB on Polygon; the matching engine pairs YES buyers with NO buyers atomically — every executed trade is settled on-chain with no counterparty risk. For "Genius FDV above 2028 one day after launch?", crypto markets re-price within seconds of any underlying spot tick — expect the book to lift or hit ±$50k of liquidity inside 30 seconds of a major exchange move.
The trade ticket includes a slippage box (default 2%, configurable 0.1%-10%) that caps the worst-case entry price. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning YES (or NO) shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. With this market's current book depth ($0 of resting liquidity), a $50 order should fill with single-cent slippage at the displayed mid-price.
PolyGram charges 0% house edge — no spread mark-up, no rake on winnings, no withdrawal fees beyond network gas. The platform earns exclusively from optional features (copy-trade boosts, advanced order types, the yield vault on idle USDC); the trading surface itself is at-cost.
Other active prediction markets in the same category on PolyGram, ranked by trading volume:
The mechanics for trading "Genius FDV above 2028 one day after launch?" are the same as any other PolyGram crypto-price event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$2.5M in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for crypto contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 2 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 January 2028. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose. For "Genius FDV above 2028 one day after launch?", the considerations above apply directly — Crypto-price contracts inherit the volatility of the underlying asset. The market price will track spot tightly until a few hours before resolution, at which point the binary nature of the payoff creates non-linear gamma — small moves in spot can drive large moves in the contract.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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