Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT May 10 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the May 11 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT May 10 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the May 11 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Bitcoin Up or Down on May 11? | 0% YES | 100% NO |
This market measures Bitcoin's intraday directional movement between two specific noon timestamps on Binance, comparing the BTC/USDT close price at 12:00 ET on 10 May 2026 against the close at 12:00 ET on 11 May 2026. A 24-hour window captures the price action between these two points, with resolution hinging on precise candle closes rather than intraday volatility or extremes. The current order book on Polymarket shows zero implied probability for an upward move, suggesting market participants are pricing in either a downward bias or, more likely given the extreme reading, insufficient liquidity and positioning at current price levels.
Bitcoin's intraday price action over single-day windows historically exhibits low predictability, with noon-to-noon moves influenced by overlapping trading sessions across Asia, Europe and North America. Comparable short-window directional markets on major exchanges show that such tight timeframes often resolve near 50-50 when examined across large samples, though regional market opens and macroeconomic data releases can create directional bias. The 0% probability reading likely reflects thin order book depth rather than genuine conviction that Bitcoin cannot rise between these two points.
Traders should monitor scheduled economic data releases in the 24-hour window, particularly US inflation or employment figures if scheduled near either timestamp, as these drive broad risk-asset repricing. Bitcoin's correlation with equity futures and Treasury yields remains a primary driver; any significant moves in these markets during the settlement period would likely influence the BTC/USDT close. Geopolitical developments and central bank communications in May 2026 would also merit attention as potential catalysts for directional moves.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Bitcoin Up or Down on May 11?" are the same as any other PolyGram crypto-price event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$690K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 10% by volume for crypto contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 0%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 11 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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