Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT May 10 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the May 11 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT May 10 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the May 11 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Bitcoin Up or Down on May 11? | 65% YES | 36% NO |
This market measures whether Bitcoin's price at noon ET on 11 May 2026 will be higher or lower than its price at noon ET on 10 May 2026, settling on Binance spot data. The 33% implied probability for upward movement reflects current order book positioning on Polymarket, where traders are pricing in a roughly two-to-one bias towards a price decline or flat movement across that 24-hour window. With settlement occurring at a fixed time rather than daily close, the market isolates intraday volatility and overnight gaps rather than broader directional trends.
Bitcoin's one-day price action typically ranges between 2–5% in normal market conditions, though this varies considerably depending on macroeconomic releases and geopolitical events. Historical precedent suggests that noon-to-noon candle comparisons tend to capture either consolidation or continuation patterns; the current 33% probability for upward movement sits below the 50% baseline, indicating the order book is weighted towards either downside or sideways price action. Comparable single-day directional markets on Polymarket have shown that when implied probability drifts below 40%, traders are often pricing in either technical resistance levels or anticipated selling pressure.
Traders should monitor scheduled economic data releases in the week preceding 11 May, particularly US inflation figures and Federal Reserve communications, which historically drive Bitcoin volatility. Regulatory announcements affecting spot Bitcoin ETFs or custody frameworks could also shift intraday momentum. The specific noon ET timestamp means Asian market close and European morning trading overlap, periods that have historically shown variable liquidity and directional conviction on Binance.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Bitcoin Up or Down on May 11?" are the same as any other PolyGram crypto-price event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$98K in lifetime turnover and $38K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for crypto contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $98K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 65%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 11 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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