Trade: Yoon out of custody before 2027?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of South Korea Yoon Suk Yeol is released from custody by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Yoon is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes". If Yoon is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes". Transporting Yoon to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $13K
- Total Volume
- $10K
- 24h Volume
- $37
- Open Interest
- $4K
Market outcomes
| Yoon out of custody before 2027? | 8% YES | 92% NO |
Market context
President Yoon Suk Yeol of South Korea faces multiple criminal investigations and has been detained on charges including insurrection related to his December 2024 martial law declaration. The central question for this market is whether he will be released from state custody—whether through acquittal, case dismissal, or conditional release such as parole or bail—before the end of 2026. The current order book on Polymarket prices this outcome at 7% probability, reflecting substantial scepticism that Yoon will exit custody within the settlement window.
South Korea's legal system provides limited historical precedent for high-ranking sitting or recently-departed presidents facing insurrection charges. Former presidents have faced prosecution, but the severity and political sensitivity of insurrection allegations creates uncertainty around both trial duration and judicial outcomes. The Constitutional Court's December 2024 decision to proceed with Yoon's impeachment trial rather than dismiss it outright signals institutional willingness to pursue the case, though impeachment and criminal proceedings operate on separate timelines. International observers note that South Korean courts have historically required substantial evidence for conviction on insurrection charges, a high bar that may extend proceedings.
Key catalysts include the Constitutional Court's impeachment verdict (expected mid-2025), the Seoul Central District Court's handling of detention extension hearings, and any appellate decisions on his initial arrest warrant. Recent reporting from Reuters and local outlets indicates prosecutors are pursuing multiple charges beyond insurrection, including abuse of power, which could fragment the legal process across different courts. A trader monitoring this market should track court scheduling announcements and any shifts in prosecutorial strategy, as these directly influence the probability of release before end-2026.
Wikipedia Context
-
Yoon Suk YeolYoon Suk Yeol is a South Korean politician who served as the 13th president of South Korea from 2022 until his removal from office in 2025. A member of the People Power Party during his presidency, he had the shortest presidency as an elected leader in the country's democratic history. Yoon previously served as prosecutor general from 2019 to 2021. On 19 Feb
-
Yoon Eun-hyeYoon Eun-hye is a South Korean singer and actress. She debuted as a member of South Korean girl group Baby Vox, staying with the group from 1999 to 2005, as well as WSG Wannabe, a female project group in 2022. Yoon has since moved on to acting and is best known for starring in the television dramas Princess Hours (2006), The Vineyard Man (2006), Coffee Princ
-
Yoon Jong-hwanYoon Jong-hwan is a South Korean football manager and former player, who is currently the head coach of K League 1 club Incheon United.
-
Yoon Jeong-heeYoon Jeong-hee was a South Korean actress and beauty pageant titleholder who competed at Miss Korea 1964. She debuted in 1967 in Theatre of Youth. She appeared in about 330 films, and her better known works are New Place (1979), Woman in Crisis (1987) and Manmubang (1994). Her last performance was in 2010, in director Lee Chang-dong's film Poetry, for which
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Yoon out of custody before 2027?" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 8% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $1250 if YES resolves true — a 1150% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$10K in lifetime turnover and $13K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $37 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 6 months — long enough that the order book is mature and price is well-anchored to fundamentals.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
What is the current probability for "Yoon out of custody before 2027?"?
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 8%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Yoon out of custody before 2027?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Related prediction markets
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: