Resolution criteria on PolyGram: A "full lid" at the White House is an official announcement indicating that the President's public activities for the day have concluded and no further public events, appearances, or news are expected. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the White House Press Office calls a full lid by 6:30 PM ET on the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only a full lid will qualify; lunch lids, intermissions, or any other press lid not explicitly listed as a full lid will not be sufficient to qualify this market towards a "Yes" resolution.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| May 4 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| May 6 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| May 8 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| May 5 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| May 7 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| May 9 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
The White House Press Office's announcement of a full lid—signalling the conclusion of the President's public schedule for the day—represents a discrete, verifiable event that occurs with considerable regularity. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability, suggesting traders assess a full lid as virtually certain by 6:30 PM ET during the May 4–9 window. This pricing reflects the mechanical nature of the White House daily schedule: full lids are standard practice on most days, typically called in late afternoon once the President's final public engagement concludes.
Historical precedent shows full lids are called on the vast majority of weekdays, with exceptions primarily occurring when the President maintains evening events, state dinners, or unscheduled public activities. The specificity of the 6:30 PM threshold is material—this window captures the typical timeframe for afternoon lid calls but excludes evenings when additional events might occur. Recent White House schedules demonstrate consistent adherence to this pattern, with full lids routinely announced between 4:00 PM and 6:00 PM ET.
Traders should monitor the published presidential schedule for May 4–9, particularly whether any evening events, travel, or public appearances are listed. Unplanned developments—emergency briefings, late-breaking statements, or schedule changes—represent the primary catalysts that could delay or prevent a full lid call within the specified window. The current pricing reflects confidence in standard operational procedures, though any deviation from typical scheduling would merit reassessment.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM? (May 4 - 9)" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$23K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 9 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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