Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States acquires control of any land territory that is part of Greenland by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only the transfer of sovereignty, or the acquisition of primary or exclusive jurisdiction or control qualifies. 1. Transfer of Sovereignty: This will qualify if a binding agreement or legal instrument results in a defined area of Greenland coming under the formal sovereignty of the U.S. (e.g., incorporated as a U.S. state, territory, possession, or other U.S. political classification), even if the effective date occurs after the market deadline. 2.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | 14% YES | 86% NO |
The question centres on whether the United States will formally acquire territorial control of any portion of Greenland by the end of 2026. This requires a binding legal transfer of sovereignty or exclusive jurisdiction—a straightforward threshold that excludes informal arrangements, leases, or non-binding statements of intent. The current Polymarket order book implies a 14% probability, reflecting scepticism about such a transfer materialising within the specified timeframe.
Historical precedent suggests acquisition of foreign territory by the US occurs rarely and typically through formal diplomatic channels or military conquest. The last significant territorial acquisition was Puerto Rico and Guam in 1898 following the Spanish-American War. Greenland remains an autonomous territory within the Kingdom of Denmark, with Denmark retaining sovereignty over foreign policy and defence. Previous US interest in Greenland—including the 1867 attempt to purchase it and Cold War-era strategic considerations—never progressed to formal acquisition. The Danish government and Greenlandic authorities have consistently rejected sale proposals, though Greenland's independence movement and resource wealth create theoretical negotiating conditions absent in earlier periods.
Near-term catalysts include statements from incoming US administrations regarding Arctic strategy and Greenland's geopolitical value. Recent reporting has highlighted renewed US interest in Greenland's rare earth minerals and Arctic positioning relative to China and Russia. Any formal acquisition would require Danish consent (or Greenlandic independence followed by separate negotiation), ratification through US constitutional processes, and Greenlandic political acceptance. The compressed timeline to end-2026 constrains the diplomatic and legislative machinery typically required for such transfers, which historically span years or decades.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$9.8M in lifetime turnover and $85K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $47K in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 4 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 14%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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