Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the ME-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 9, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Candidate J | — | |
| Candidate L | — | |
| Candidate N | — | |
| Other | — | |
| Candidate I | — | |
| Candidate K | — | |
| Candidate M | — | |
| Candidate O | — | |
Maine's 2nd congressional district will hold a Democratic primary on 9 June 2026 to select the party's nominee for the U.S. House seat. The primary winner will face the Republican nominee in the November general election. This district, which encompasses rural and coastal Maine, has been competitive in recent cycles, with Republican Jedediah Bila currently holding the seat after winning in 2022. The Democratic primary outcome will depend on candidate recruitment, fundraising capacity, and voter turnout in a district where Democrats have struggled to maintain consistent representation.
Historical precedent suggests Maine's Democratic primaries tend to favour establishment-backed candidates with strong local roots and union support, though the state's independent-minded electorate can produce surprises. The 2nd district's Democratic primary in 2022 saw relatively modest participation compared to statewide races, indicating potential volatility if multiple credible candidates enter. Current order book pricing on Polymarket will reflect early expectations about candidate field strength and name recognition, though the probability distribution remains fluid until major candidates formally announce.
Traders should monitor candidate announcements through spring 2026, particularly from state legislators and local officials with existing fundraising networks. The Maine Democratic Party's primary endorsement process, typically concluded by April, will signal establishment preferences. Fundraising disclosures and polling data from recognised Maine pollsters will provide concrete indicators of frontrunner viability. Any significant shifts in the Republican seat's vulnerability following 2024 results could also influence candidate decisions about whether to contest the primary.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "ME-02 Democratic Primary Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$14K in lifetime turnover and $16K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $30 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 6 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 9 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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