Trade: Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $145K
- Total Volume
- $52K
- 24h Volume
- $14K
- Open Interest
- $9K
Market outcomes
| Macron - France President | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| Erdoğan - Türkiye President | 1% YES | 100% NO |
| Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| Xi - General Secretary of the CCP | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Netanyahu - Israel PM | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| Albanese - Australia PM | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| Newsom - California Governor | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Milei - Argentina President | 1% YES | 99% NO |
Market context
This market resolves if any of several world leaders permanently loses office before the end of 2026, excluding Viktor Orbán. The resolution criteria are strict: an announced resignation or electoral defeat alone will not trigger settlement. Only actual removal from power counts, with temporary suspensions—such as impeachment stays or constitutional transfers—explicitly excluded. A leader remaining in a caretaker capacity also fails to qualify.
Historical precedent suggests permanent, unscheduled departures from power remain uncommon among sitting heads of government in developed democracies over short timeframes. The 3% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects this baseline rarity. Recent comparable cases include Liz Truss's 49-day tenure as UK Prime Minister in 2022, which did resolve as a permanent exit, and Giorgia Meloni's continued hold on the Italian premiership despite political turbulence. The market's low probability pricing suggests traders assess the roster of included leaders as relatively secure in their positions through 2026.
Catalysts to monitor include health emergencies, criminal convictions resulting in forced resignation, or sudden political collapse forcing immediate departure rather than orderly transition. The UK's next general election is scheduled for January 2025, which could trigger resolution if the incumbent loses; however, electoral defeat alone does not qualify under these terms. Similarly, France's political situation remains volatile following recent parliamentary fragmentation, though Emmanuel Macron's position remains constitutionally protected through 2027. Traders should track judicial proceedings and coalition stability across the included jurisdictions.
Wikipedia Context
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New Leaders
New Leaders is an American non-profit organization that aims to recruit and train school leaders who focus on improving education results for poor and minority students. It also aims to promote system-level policies and practices that provide support to these leaders. The organization was founded in 2000 as New Leaders for New Schools by Jonathan Schnur and
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The New Leader
The New Leader (1924–2010) was an American political and cultural magazine.
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News Leaders AssociationNews Leaders Association (NLA) was a non-profit organization that focused on training and supporting journalists. It was formed by the 2019 merger of the American Society of News Editors and Associated Press Media Editors.
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NeXT Laser Printer
The NeXT Laser Printer [NeXT PN N2000] was a 400 DPI PostScript laser printer, sold by NeXT from late 1988 to 1993 for the NeXTstation and NeXTcube workstations and manufactured by Canon Inc. It included an adjustable paper tray, which enabled it to print on several paper sizes including A4, letter-size, and those of legal and envelope varieties. It was ve
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$52K in lifetime turnover and $145K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $14K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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