Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Democratic Party | 7% YES | 94% NO |
| A | — | |
| C | — | |
| E | — | |
| Republican Party | 93% YES | 8% NO |
| Other | — | |
| B | — | |
| D | — | |
Montana's 2nd congressional district will elect a representative to the U.S. House in the 2026 midterm elections on 4 November. The current order book on Polymarket prices a Republican victory at 93% implied probability, with the YES position (Democratic win) trading at 7%. This reflects the district's substantial Republican lean: Donald Trump won MT-02 by 16 percentage points in 2020 and by 13 points in 2024, establishing it as reliably conservative territory in a state trending further rightward.
Historical context suggests the 7% probability reflects genuine structural disadvantage rather than mere baseline uncertainty. MT-02 has voted Republican in every presidential election since 2000, and the district's median household income and rural character align with Republican performance patterns nationally. Comparable districts with similar Trump margins—such as Montana's 1st district—have shown minimal Democratic competitiveness in recent cycles. The current Republican incumbent, Troy Heintz, won his 2024 special election with 56% of the vote against a well-funded Democratic challenger, providing a recent benchmark for the seat's electoral dynamics.
Traders should monitor candidate announcements through 2025 and early 2026, particularly whether Montana Democrats field a competitive nominee or concede resources to higher-priority districts. National political environment shifts—congressional approval ratings, inflation trajectories, and presidential approval—will influence turnout and marginal persuasion. Recent polling aggregates and Federal Election Commission filings will provide concrete data points as the election approaches, though historical patterns suggest structural factors will dominate outcome determination.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "MT-02 House Election Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$9K in lifetime turnover and $21K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
The market has been open for 3 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 November 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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