Resolution criteria on PolyGram: General elections are scheduled to be held in Malta on May 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the 2026 Maltese general election, defined as the total number of votes cast divided by the total number of registered voters. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. If the results of this election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Government of Malta, including the Electoral Commission of Malta (https://electoral.gov.mt/)
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| <85% | 60% YES | 40% NO |
| 90-95% | 7% YES | 93% NO |
| 95%+ | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| 85-90% | 28% YES | 73% NO |
Malta will hold general elections on 30 May 2026. The market is pricing a 67% probability that voter turnout will exceed 80%, based on current order book activity on Polymarket. This threshold reflects historical patterns in Maltese electoral participation, where turnout has consistently remained robust across recent decades. The 2022 general election saw turnout of 74.8%, whilst the 2017 election recorded 74.6%. These figures place Malta above the European average for parliamentary elections, though below the exceptional participation rates seen in some smaller EU member states.
The current implied probability of 67% for above-80% turnout suggests traders view the 2026 election as likely to generate elevated participation relative to recent cycles, but with meaningful uncertainty about whether it will breach the 80% threshold. Catalysts affecting this assessment include the composition of the electorate, campaign intensity, and any shifts in voter engagement patterns between now and May 2026. The Maltese electoral register has grown modestly in recent years, and demographic changes may influence participation rates. Traders should monitor announcements regarding campaign scheduling, any early dissolution of parliament, and polling data released in the months preceding the election, as these will inform revised probability estimates on the order book.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Malta General Election: Turnout" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$21K in lifetime turnover and $40K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $1K in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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