Resolution criteria on PolyGram: Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra". This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 20–40 | 20% YES | 80% NO |
| <20 | 5% YES | 95% NO |
| 60+ | 35% YES | 66% NO |
| No prison time | 23% YES | 77% NO |
| 40–60 | 14% YES | 86% NO |
Nicolas Maduro, Venezuela's president since 2013, was indicted by the US Southern District of New York in January 2026 on narco-terrorism and cocaine importation charges alongside senior regime figures including Diosdado Cabello and his wife Cilia Flores. The indictment alleges involvement in large-scale drug trafficking operations. For Maduro to serve prison time under this market's terms, he would need to be extradited, tried, convicted and sentenced by 31 December 2027—a compressed timeline given the geopolitical complexities involved.
The 16% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects the historical difficulty of securing convictions and custodial sentences against sitting heads of state. Comparable cases offer limited precedent: Manuel Noriega was captured during a 1989 US invasion and served 17 years, whilst Augusto Pinochet faced extradition proceedings but died before trial. More recently, Charles Taylor, the former Liberian president, was convicted by an international tribunal and imprisoned, though he operated without active state control. These cases suggest conviction is possible but typically requires either regime collapse, loss of power, or extraordinary diplomatic circumstances.
Current catalysts centre on Venezuela's political stability and Maduro's grip on power. His control of the military and security apparatus remains intact despite economic collapse and opposition pressure. Any significant shift—military defection, successful coup, or negotiated transition—could alter extradition likelihood substantially. The US has maintained sanctions and diplomatic isolation but has not pursued active military intervention. Traders should monitor Venezuelan domestic political developments and any shifts in regional diplomatic engagement, particularly from neighbouring countries and China, which currently provides critical economic support to Maduro's government.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Maduro Prison Time?" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$527K in lifetime turnover and $64K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $20K in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 4 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2027. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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