Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Republican Party | 50% YES | 51% NO |
| Other | — | |
| B | — | |
| D | — | |
| Democratic Party | 39% YES | 61% NO |
| A | — | |
| C | — | |
| E | — | |
Iowa's 2nd congressional district will elect a representative to the U.S. House in the November 2026 midterm elections. The seat is currently held by Republican Ashley Hinson, who won re-election in 2024 with 52% of the vote in a district that has become increasingly competitive. The 50% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects genuine uncertainty about whether Democrats or Republicans will prevail, with neither party commanding clear structural advantage in this swing-leaning seat.
Historical context suggests IA-02 remains genuinely competitive terrain. The district voted for Joe Biden by 3 points in 2020 before swinging to Donald Trump by 4 points in 2024, demonstrating volatility typical of persuadable suburban and exurban areas. Comparable districts—such as Iowa's 3rd, which flipped Democratic in 2022—show that midterm dynamics can shift significantly from presidential cycles. The current 50-50 split reflects this inherent toss-up status rather than either party holding structural dominance.
Traders should monitor candidate announcements, which typically accelerate through 2025 and into early 2026. Hinson's decision whether to seek re-election, defend her seat, or pursue higher office will be a critical catalyst. National political environment shifts—particularly economic conditions and approval ratings heading into 2026—will likely move the probability substantially. Redistricting effects remain minimal since Iowa's boundaries were redrawn in 2022, so the fundamental electorate composition is established. Primary results in both parties, scheduled for June 2026, will provide concrete data on candidate viability and enthusiasm.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "IA-02 House Election Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$2K in lifetime turnover and $4K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 3 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 November 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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